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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (9535)	11/12/1997 2:04:00 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 94695

You're right, his long term prediction of a rout on Monday just didn't happen. But what amazed me was the day to day predictions. I looked back through the Mohan thread to see what had surprised me, for the bored, here are the details: Monday night: I actually think we will attempt a small rally here just to establish the 7600-7650 as a very strong resistance level exchange2000.com On tuesday, the market tested 7600, and did find very strong resistance there. Saturday night: I no longer see clearly even a halt in trading (350 down) exchange2000.com By Monday morning, it was clear the market would open higher. Zeev didn't post that night, (I think) but if he had, he would of retracted his prediction of a possible really bad day. As it was, the Dow basically slid down all day after that open. Friday midday: end the day roughly where we are now (about 7550). exchange2000.com Approximately correct Thursday evening: tomorrow we shoud visit sub 7600 teritorry exchange2000.com Wednesday evening: by Friday, revisit sub 7600 territory again exchange2000.com Tuesday night: By tomorrow afternoon a rout in the US market will start. It will accelerate just a tad Thursday and pick up steam on Friday. Monday it will become clear that goernments do not have the power to stop the decline in the rim's market and the US market will have a very bad spill (repeat of Monday a week ago?). exchange2000.com Perfect prediction for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Missed on Monday, but a lot better than I could have done. Perhaps the lesson is that it is a lot safer to forecast small moves than big ones. :) -- Carl