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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40566)	12/14/2010 12:28:25 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78753

Paul, WDC - I may be still fighting the last war in HDD maker land. You are right, it has good ROE recently. I still can't shake off the last collapse when price war drove multiple companies to almost zero. I know people are claiming that this time it's different and there are too few HDD makers left for a full scale price war. I'm not so sure. I'll have to think more about this. :)

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40566)	12/14/2010 1:31:54 AM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78753

Hi Paul - it's been a long time ..., I'm probably taking liberties, but my reading of Greenblatt didn't necessarily seem to preclude shorter holding periods. I've seen studies showing good results with shorter term rebalancing also using Magic Formula approach (1 month) - although I've tried trading on 1 month windows and it's a bit much I think. There's not enough "better" new ideas that come up in such short term time frames. 2-3 months seem to be a timeframe that creates enough new opportunities to me. I came to 2-3 month holding periods recently after several trades over the summer trading moves in stocks like KMB, JNJ, WMT, PEP, MSFT and few others - just moving capital from one to another based on price action. The big blue chips just seemed so cheap to me, but at the same time I realized they hadn't gone anywhere in 10 yrs so I didn't want to commit long term. Trading the rolling waves in price action and picking up dividends here and there seemed to make sense to me in that environment. (For example ABT is looking to shape up for a short term trade right now following that same approach - I probably should pull the trigger on it. CHL is one I just entered for similar reasoning). To a degree MSFT and INTC are in that same boat, although more PE expansion makes sense to me with limited downside in both of the latter.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40566)	1/20/2011 6:10:56 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78753

I give up on disk drive maker WDC. Although WDC reported good results, "Western Digital Q2 beats Street"... World's No. 2 hard-drive maker Western Digital Corp (WDC.N) surprised investors with its quarterly results, indicating hard-drive sales remained robust...", there was a cautionary: "'Despite a reduction of about 2-3 million hard drives in the PC supply chain, there is still an inventory in excess of 6-8 million units in the PC manufacturers pipeline,' Chief Operating Officer Timothy Leyden said in a conference call. The inventory warning indicates that Western Digital could see a return of the supply glut that hit its results in mid-2010." I've lost confidence given these latest media reports: "Seagate shares sink on results" "Tablets May Be Hurting Hard Drive Makers" finance.yahoo.com I believe I just would rather be somewhere else and not in WDC. (Possibly that's a good contra-indicator for others who might look to buy WDC now.)