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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (40614)	12/15/2010 1:31:42 AM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78774

Mark, all good questions. I think the Marc Gerstein study was an attempt to build a fully automatable process using approx 1 mo holding periods just to see what would happen and the 4wk empirical holding periods had good results in his test. He has better trading approaches and doesn't necessarily recommend this one, but it was interesting to me that the hypothetical shorter term results were good and got me to thinking about how I approached value stocks in general. 1 mo? 12mo? something in between? something longer? Based on what I've seen of the screens, I would never be comfortable going with the autopilot approach. Some of the stocks that rank at the top have clear issues that I'd prefer to stay away from. Most of my picks are in the top 100-150 or so, but I'd never just take the top 15 no questions asked. - Alot of the issues in some of the MF stocks are being discussed on the thread right now - alot of Chinese companies at the top which have accounting concerns. -Some sectors I want to avoid like the for profit educators which are all over the list. (Jurgis for example I think says he prefers avoiding the home health sector right now which has several MFstocks at the top.) -A single irregular blip in quarterly earnings can move a company into the top, so I keep an eye out for those (MICC is example). -Some are just company specific. Some think PPD is pyramid scheme. Some co's are dependent on govt contracts. - ARO Aeropostale is near the top but just warned of expected very weak quarter so I just sold and am holding off for air to clear before reentering. - GRMN and RIMM - can they last in world of iphone/Android? I saw video clip where Greenblatt discusses how it's easy to pretty much come up with good reasons to avoid most of the stocks at the top of the list and advise maybe it's just best to hold your nose and buy - in aggregate it works out. I just can't quite do that though even though it might be self defeating. Just want to try to improve my odds if I can, and it's kindof fun to try! :-)