In-Stat Expects the DVD Market to Equal the CD-ROM Market by 1999
November 13, 1997
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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE) via Individual Inc. -- In-Stat
expects DVD drive shipments will be about equal to those of CD-ROM
drives by 1999.
For 1997, In-Stat forecasts a 24% increase in worldwide CD-ROM drive
unit shipments over 1996 shipments, with DVD-ROM drive shipments at
under one million units, which represents a small percentage of the
overall optical drive market.
"DVD has finally arrived in the PC. CD-ROM drives have been replaced by
DVD-ROM drives in many high-end PC systems introduced this fall, and
rewritable DVD drives will be available in 1998," said Michelle Abraham,
Industry Analyst for In-Stat's PC & Peripheral Service.
"However, In-Stat does not believe rewritable DVD will be a mainstream
PC peripheral in 1998, because competing standards will make PC vendors
leery of incorporating rewritable DVD drives into their PCs even when
the price declines," she added.
In-Stat expects CD-ROM drive shipments to decrease in 2000 and 2001,
while DVD drive shipments grow by 71% and 44% respectively. Rewritable
DVD drives will make inroads into the DVD-ROM drive market in 2000. By
2001, In-Stat anticipates that rewritable DVD drives will account for
over one-third of all DVD drives shipped worldwide.
The main impetus for the inclusion of DVD-ROM drives in high-end PCs has
been the decline in DVD-ROM drive prices. Subscribing to intense
pressure from PC vendors, DVD-ROM drive manufacturers have lowered drive
prices to under $200, so PC vendors have found it advantageous to
include DVD as a differentiating factor on their high-end models.
Abraham explained that once there is a standard and the drives cost less
than $200, In-Stat expects that rewritable DVD drives will replace
CD-ROM and DVD-ROM drives, as well as floppy drives, high-capacity
floppy drives, and tape drives.
Although DVD-ROM drives have been available for less than a year, the
speed race has already begun, but In-Stat does not expect 4X to appear
soon, since there are technical challenges to overcome. The first drives
started shipping in multimedia upgrade kits this spring.
In June, PC vendors Micron and Gateway announced desktop PCs were
immediately available with DVD-ROM drives, with other PC vendors
following suit in their fall line. IBM and Panasonic have taken
advantage of the new slim DVD-ROM drives to be the first to offer
notebook PCs with DVD.
"DVD Finally Begins Takeover of CD Market," Abraham's report number
PC9712PE for In-Stat's PC & Peripheral Service, examines the worldwide
markets and provides five-year forecasts for CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW,
DVD-ROM, DVD-R, and rewritable DVD drives.
Various speed issues and pricing pressures for CD-ROM and DVD-ROM are
also covered, along with the transition of the drive interface from
ATAPI and SCSI (which are available today) to IEEE 1394. In addition,
this report discusses the disagreement over the rewritable DVD standard,
which will inhibit its overall acceptance and incorporation into PCs.
"DVD Finally Begins Takeover of CD Market" number PC9712PE, is specially
priced at $2,995. Price includes analyst inquiry privileges on topics
covered in this report. To purchase this report or for information about
In-Stat's Semiconductor, Computer, and Communications Services, call
Dennis Ashton at 602/483-4471 or email dennisa@instat.com.
In-Stat is a full service, high-technology, market research and
information company serving the semiconductor, communications, computer,
and multimedia marketplaces. In-Stat is part of Cahners Publishing Co.,
the largest publisher of specialized business publications in the United
States. Visit In-Stat Online at instat.com .
CONTACT: In-Stat, Scottsdale | Michelle Abraham, 602/483-4445 |
email:michellea@instat.com | Karen Martin, 602/483-4442 | email:
karenm@instat.com
[Copyright 1997, Business Wire]
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