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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40664)	12/17/2010 10:01:20 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78682

Hi Paul - Re: EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO) Didn't know about the prior history of the CEO but Wilbur Ross's recent buy supports my view that this one is a hold up to a fair value price of $29.00/share. I remember reading somewhere that an argument could be made for a $29.00/share buy out price which would be at the high end IMO. That's 40% higher than the $20.50/share buy out offer. I also like GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR) below $5.00/share for the various reasons I posted earlier. The tie in with XCO is that GMXR owns several parcels contiguous to XCO parcel(s) and has one or more JV's with them ranging from drilling ventures, shared gathering facilities and other well development projects. If a new buyer bids on XCO (or the private buy out occurs), the new XCO owner(s) may also acquire some or all of GMXR as this company's properties are also undervalued when compared to XCO's buyout offer. If the new buyer is a very large integrated Oil company, they may just want both companies. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (40664)	2/24/2011 3:48:22 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78682

Re: EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO) - Sell (closed out position) Honeywell International Inc. (HON) - Sell (partial sale) Closed out my position on XCO. I expected a better move higher with all the news on higher energy prices during the last few days. Since I have been moving monies into many of these smaller E&P companies that produce both oil & NG and have a large exposure to NG in my CNX position (which I believe has another 35% to the upside), I thought it was a good opportunity to raise some cash. Original position purchased 9/16/2010 at $13.30/share. Closed out the position @ 20.25/share. Peeled off some shares of HON @ $56.60/share. Durable good orders not as good as expected. Not too sure they can meet the analysts estimates of $4.69/share next year especially if the economy slows with such high oil prices. The relative dividend yield for HON is low at 2.5%. They did announce they were going to pay off $168 million in 5.6% debt that they may reflect in a future higher dividend. Still hold a stub position but believe there are better areas to deploy the funds. I am looking at the pharmaceutical drug sector as many of these companies have been beaten down and sell close to their 200 day MA. Looking to take some more gains when the opportunity presents itself. EKS