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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (298927)	12/19/2010 12:48:05 PM
From: ayn rand	Respond to of 306849

commercial RE bubble not popped, as yet, being propped up temporarily until? i suppose that will occur when banking and worldwide fiat currencies collectively expire, and banksters and friends flee to their overseas villas w/ their pirate booty

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (298927)	12/19/2010 1:47:22 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

'So Patron, Is the RE Crash finally over ? Or do we have to sit through more of the same in 2011 ? I remember Calculatedrisk's chart showing more loans hitting the wall in 2011.' Glad to see the rare sighting of an on topic post. This is a very long cycle and if you look at the previous bust from about 1986-96 it varied by region, property type even price range last time and the same thing is happening this time. Maybe we are entering the equivalent of 1993 when the higher end of coastal CA and the northeast were falling hard but many areas had bottomed? In Florida we fell harder and very fast through 2008..It was a stunning fall within two years if you blinked and didn't pay attention in.. Prices in general have been stable for a very long time though a few less speculative areas did drop further even into 2009 but the percentages were minor in the big picture and we are on average in the sixth inning in clearing out the distressed property and putting it into stronger hands. I have really been amazed that some condo communities with 80-90% drops have already cleared out the majority of those 2003-07 vintage loans to mostly all cash buyers for $20-40k by now...I think most on this board blinked and missed what has been taking place in ground zero markets<g>

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (298927)	12/19/2010 2:56:48 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

We're just warming up again:

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (298927)	12/19/2010 6:25:17 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

>>So Patron, Is the RE Crash finally over ? Or do we have to sit through more of the same in 2011 ? I remember Calculatedrisk's chart showing more loans hitting the wall in 2011.<< Excellent question for discussion....I think the "crash" is over, but by no means are we guaranteed a sharp recovery. Could be 2-3 years of flat, but at some point the money pump will kick in. Not sure housing will outpace commodities, but it will outpace cash. If you buy here (especially with 30:1 leverage in a non-recourse state) the risk is like falling out of a first floor window vs a 10th floor window in '05 and '06.