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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40716)	12/20/2010 2:01:52 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

I view X differently. Currently (but not in the future, according to the company), US Steel is 80% self-sufficient in coke. It also owns iron ore mines. Therefore, X has an advantage in material costs over some competitors who do not have their own captive sources for raw materials. X may "operate with relatively high costs", but that imo is due to X's high labor costs. X trades now at about 3x tangible book value (per SI financials and S&P numbers), and has had a loss year in '09. It's certainly possible X could be a short "if things turn down from here". I can't put a probability number to it though. Nor can I put a probability number on the stock doing better if the US economy does better. In recent times though, when things were better, X stock has been up there. That is, while the stock now is @$59, 30 months ago it was up at $180. Imo, with these price swings, this is a stock whose shorting, if any, should be left to professionals. I've owned a few shares since 7/'09 with an occasional few share add. I'm not saying US Steel is a buy or recommending it as a buy now. I own a few shares, am aware that many if not most steel stocks have participated in the current market rally, and am betting on further upside move.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40716)	12/20/2010 12:04:04 PM
From: Mattyice	Respond to of 78751

Thanks for the reply, my thing is if china stops buying (2/3rds of vales iron ore goes to china) vale will have no where to ship the bulk of there iron ore no matter how cheap they produce it. I think people are missing the overvaluation of vale. They are becoming a shipping and logistics company, undergoing a very aggressive ship building program that will leave them the largest private ship fleet in the world, not JUST a low cost producer of iron ore. Best case scenarios on some estimates already has them losing money on spot rates in good times (though I take alot of numbers estimates with a grain of salt) It seems very risk for me even if china property doesn't go bust. There is alot more interesting things about vale like financing there ships with Chinese financing, and not very upfront about a whole host of other issues that they want kept secret, why I don't know. Sir Spekalot posco is on my list and a bundle of other companies. I want the worst of the worst. Especially these foreign large multinationals that are addicted to china like crack cocaine. Vales perception is alot different in reality in my opinion.