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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50488)	12/23/2010 4:50:06 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95378

sold most of my AMAT today at $14. Reasons: 1. tax loss selling. I've made large ST gains this year, trading KLIC, RIG, and solar stocks (long and short). In addition, beginning 1/1/11, the IRS will get info from brokers, on cost basis for all stock sales. I need to clear out my old positions, so in the future my broker's cost-basis numbers match mine. I'll wait 31 days, then set orders to buy back AMAT at 12$ and down. 2. While the S&P 500 has set a series of higher highs in January, April, November, and December, AMAT peaked in January, set a lower high in April, and has yet to take out the April high. $14 looks like as good a selling price as I'm going to get, in this upcycle. 3. Bookings peaked in July. There isn't a perfect correlation between a peak in stock prices, and a peak in bookings 0-6 months later, but it's as good as any signal. siliconinvestor.com (thanks, Gottfried) It's not different this time. 4. We are in a cyclical bull market, but also in a secular bear market (inflation-adjusted stock prices peaked in 2000). That means BuyAndHold doesn't work, especially the closer the S&P 500 gets to 1500. Although I'd guess in 2011 the S&P 500 will be up 5-20%, I also see a lot of volatility, with multiple 10%+ pullbacks. The volatility will be caused by Europe's sovereign and bank debt, China's inflation, persistently high U.S. unemployment, oil over $100, housing foreclosures, and/or political/military shocks. BTDSTR* will give better returns in 2011, than BuyAndHold. disclosure: no positions in semis or semi-equips, for the first time since early September 2008. Also have a higher cash position today, than at any time time since late September 2008. I used margin a lot, during late 2008, through 2009, and into 2010. I will be very reluctant to use margin in 2011. * = Buy The Dip, Sell The Rally.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50488)	12/24/2010 12:20:46 PM
From: dvdw©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95378

Pretty much useless information when you consider these facts. Another Decade low for number of floats in play, and this present volume, represents a record high juxt opposed against that low. Daily Market Summary Daily market summary represents volume from all trading venues on which NASDAQ® Issues are traded. For Dec 22, 2010 Share Volume Dollar Volume Total Volume: 1,655,120,480 $36,200,599,532 Block Volume: 273,290,394 Number of Issues: 2,896 Number of MPs: 699 Total Trades: 6,084,036 Block Trades: 9,058 For Dec 21, 2010 Share Volume Dollar Volume Total Volume: 1,702,354,172 $40,419,306,110 Block Volume: 236,382,431 Number of Issues: 2,896 Number of MPs: 706 Total Trades: 6,535,331 Block Trades: 8,217 For Dec 20, 2010 Share Volume Dollar Volume Total Volume: 1,761,266,702 $47,045,318,671 Block Volume: 223,355,558 Number of Issues: 2,896 Number of MPs: 709 Total Trades: 7,191,860 Block Trades: 6,940 For Dec 17, 2010 Share Volume Dollar Volume Total Volume: 2,778,234,566 $75,891,540,531 Block Volume: 826,032,682 Number of Issues: 2,895 Number of MPs: 786 Total Trades: 7,987,275 Block Trades: 12,606 For Dec 16, 2010 Share Volume Dollar Volume Total Volume: 1,799,423,912 $48,494,134,853 Block Volume: 256,180,508 Number of Issues: 2,897 Number of MPs: 786 Total Trades: 7,592,387 Block Trades: 6,784