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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (69989)	12/26/2010 3:36:39 PM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220464

Malthus was correct, he got timing wrong. The Earth is finite. Human growth and resource consumption is not lately finite (in some cases, geometric). These two (one fact, one trend) conflict. There will be resolution... Which will resolve in consumption changes, quality of life & population. Which will effect everything else including politics, monitary system, military adventures... It would also seem with advances in robotics it in not necessary for all humans to be productive for all to have necessities met. What is needed is population control. Without that all else fails. And there will be population control... Rationally or otherwise. The first fact mandates it.

To: arun gera who wrote (69989)	12/26/2010 8:25:56 PM
From: koan	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220464

<<Because people generally cannot conceptualize what 7 billion people consumming really is. The amount of food and commodiites.>>> The human species does a terrbile job of understanding probability and large abstract numbers. We are programed for pattern recognition not logic or understanding probability. <<It is only 3 times what the current developed world and the rich part of developing world already consumes. What is so difficult to conceptualize? Engineers build things that are 100 times bigger than what they tested in labs and pilot scale.>> Not sure where you got those numbers or even what you are getting at? The US is 4% of the worlds population and consumes 25% of the worlds goods and services. China is 4 times the size of the US, as is India and the rest of Asia. So that is 12 times the population of the US. 7 billion people is over 20 times the size of the US. And Asian GDP has been growing for close to 10% for a long time. So imagine the consumption of 20 USA's. <<The developed world consumption is not increasing that fast and after the baby boom generation is gone, the consumption is going to slow down further.>> The east will determine demand from here on out. <<What wreck has been caused by 3 billion people in third world who got phone access in just last 10 years? Do you think semiconductor companies have run out of silicon?>> Silicon is sand. Try inreasing palladium beyound 8 million oz a year, or platinum. Good luck. Or rare earths. Last year solar panels used 42 million oz of silver. Imagine how much silver China and India will consume producing solar panels going forward. And silver has been in deficit supply for over a decade. koan