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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (40821)	12/27/2010 4:13:43 PM
From: armi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

...future cash flows and some kind of cost of capital. Quote please? I missed it. -- for the record, I actually did the exercise as I read Buffettology. This made me conclude that I shouldn't use "Threshold" DCF because the future is THAT unpredictable. Rather, finding the intrinsic value and trusting the ability of stocks to correct over time has been the barebones of my thinking right now. I always appreciate talking to you Jurgis, your posts have never been short of amazing (:

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (40821)	12/27/2010 4:36:49 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78751

excellent comment.montier makes similar comments in his book how analysts are poor at estimating future results going even one year forward let alone ten. none the less we all try. I guess the erosion of the moat is always difficult to quantify. it would have take some vision to short sell yellow pages and newpapers from the internet. i sure didnt. nor did i think the market cap of amazon was ever justified, but entities like borders and barnes and nobles had their head up their .... . The success of amzn has made me a much bigger believer in goog so we shall see. i suppose another exptrapolation is whether cable will survive since there are so many ways to stream content into the living room now. Dish tv is offering to do it at less than 50% of my current cable company. i asked them to justify my staying with them at double the price. they didnt have an answer.