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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grantcw who wrote (40888)	1/3/2011 12:01:50 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78708

2011 is going to be pivotal in the U.S. I think you guys are way early. My prediction: nothing big expected in US. Unemployment will improve, economy will improve too, debt will rise, but nobody will care, oil prices will stay stable or even drop a bit. I also don't see a lot of extreme values, which is a value investing problem. However, I expect the economy upswing to keep market up and stable for 1-2 years at least. My guess is US debt problems and tough choices will happen not earlier than 2013-2015. May be not even then. What may break the market in 2011? - Huge Euro crisis. Probability: low. - China hard landing / crisis. Probability: low medium. - US municipal/state crisis. Probability: very low. - Oil blowup top like in 2008. Probability: low. - Wars/terrorism/natural catastrophes/pandemics - probabilities: unchanged ;) I don't think I am any good as macro predictor, so take this with a bottle of whiskey. :)