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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (70144)	1/2/2011 11:44:55 PM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218724

To Black Swan: Jeffy does not address the natural gas situation in the US for one... Not in the article I originally posted about globalization.. but then I doubt that North American Natural Gas would ever be used by China to power ocean going ships. He has mentioned natural gas in other articles.. he doesn't believe it will become an important substitute source of energy for transportation: thestar.com "The Star: What’s your take on shale gas? Has it truly changed the fortunes of the natural gas sector, as much as many experts claim? Rubin: The debate is about the real cost. If you exclude the natural gas liquids that come with most shale projects, is the real cost $4 per Mcf (1,000 cubic feet) or is it $8? If the real cost is $8 then a lot of people, like Chesapeake Energy, the biggest gas producer in the U.S., have a big problem. Is shale gas the sub-prime mortgage market of the natural gas market? Is this one giant con and investors are being conned into thinking there’s a huge supply of gas at $4 when it really costs $7 or $8 to bring it to market? In the fullness of time economics will assert itself, just as it did in the sub-prime mortgage market. But let’s, for the sake of argument, say shale gas is sustainable at $4 and that we don’t really care about the ground-water contamination or we’ve figured out a way to manage that in some sense, the question is, what has it done? It certainly hasn’t pulled down the price of oil. Boone Pickens aside, we can’t use natural gas to substitute for oil as a transit fuel. So if shale gas is real at $4 all it means is oil is going to be increasingly used only as a transit fuel around the world, though gas will be able to substitute for oil entirely as both a feedstock for petrochemicals, as a home heating fuel, and as a power generation source."