In-Stat Expects the DVD Market to Equal the CD-ROM Market by 1999
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11/12/97
Business Wire
(Copyright (c) 1997, Business Wire)
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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 12, 1997--In-Stat expects DVD drive shipments will be about equal to those of CD-ROM drives by 1999.
For 1997, In-Stat forecasts a 24% increase in worldwide CD-ROM drive unit shipments over 1996 shipments, with DVD -ROM drive shipments at under one million units, which represents a small percentage of the overall optical drive market.
" DVD has finally arrived in the PC. CD-ROM drives have been replaced by DVD -ROM drives in many high-end PC systems introduced this fall, and rewritable DVD drives will be available in 1998," said Michelle Abraham, Industry Analyst for In-Stat's PC & Peripheral Service.
"However, In-Stat does not believe rewritable DVD will be a mainstream PC peripheral in 1998, because competing standards will make PC vendors leery of incorporating rewritable DVD drives into their PCs even when the price declines," she added.
In-Stat expects CD-ROM drive shipments to decrease in 2000 and 2001, while DVD drive shipments grow by 71% and 44% respectively. Rewritable DVD drives will make inroads into the DVD -ROM drive market in 2000. By 2001, In-Stat anticipates that rewritable DVD drives will account for over one-third of all DVD drives shipped worldwide.
The main impetus for the inclusion of DVD -ROM drives in high-end PCs has been the decline in DVD -ROM drive prices. Subscribing to intense pressure from PC vendors, DVD -ROM drive manufacturers have lowered drive prices to under $200, so PC vendors have found it advantageous to include DVD as a differentiating factor on their high-end models.
Abraham explained that once there is a standard and the drives cost less than $200, In-Stat expects that rewritable DVD drives will replace CD-ROM and DVD -ROM drives, as well as floppy drives, high-capacity floppy drives, and tape drives.
Although DVD -ROM drives have been available for less than a year, the speed race has already begun, but In-Stat does not expect 4X to appear soon, since there are technical challenges to overcome. The first drives started shipping in multimedia upgrade kits this spring.
In June, PC vendors Micron and Gateway announced desktop PCs were immediately available with DVD -ROM drives, with other PC vendors following suit in their fall line. IBM and Panasonic have taken advantage of the new slim DVD -ROM drives to be the first to offer notebook PCs with DVD .
" DVD Finally Begins Takeover of CD Market," Abraham's report number PC9712PE for In-Stat's PC & Peripheral Service, examines the worldwide markets and provides five-year forecasts for CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW, DVD -ROM, DVD -R, and rewritable DVD drives.
Various speed issues and pricing pressures for CD-ROM and DVD -ROM are also covered, along with the transition of the drive interface from ATAPI and SCSI (which are available today) to IEEE 1394. In addition, this report discusses the disagreement over the rewritable DVD standard, which will inhibit its overall acceptance and incorporation into PCs.
" DVD Finally Begins Takeover of CD Market" number PC9712PE, is specially priced at $2,995. Price includes analyst inquiry privileges on topics covered in this report. To purchase this report or for information about In-Stat's Semiconductor, Computer, and Communications Services, call Dennis Ashton at 602/483-4471 or email dennisa@instat.com.
In-Stat is a full service, high-technology, market research and information company serving the semiconductor, communications, computer, and multimedia marketplaces. In-Stat is part of Cahners Publishing Co., the largest publisher of specialized business publications in the United States. Visit In-Stat Online at instat.com .
CONTACT: In-Stat, Scottsdale Michelle Abraham, 602/483-4445 email:michellea@instat.com Karen Martin, 602/483-4442 email: karenm@instat.com
08:00 EST NOVEMBER 12, 1997 |
