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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50642)1/6/2011 4:06:59 PM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95368
 
FWIW,
I took profits in many semi names today in my LTBH portfolio. Several had spectacular gains. As you stated very nicely, we've come a long way in a few months, imo, and I think it's very likely time for the market to take a breather from its charge north.

Not to mention that semis often run up before earnings and then tank (short term) on the news releases.

Add in very high bullish sentiment and it all added up to caution and profit taking for this observer. Not to mention the portfolio was light on cash, now back to 1/3 cash, 2/3 invested. Time to find some new names to add to....

Good luck with your short.

TO



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50642)1/7/2011 9:58:31 AM
From: ELH1006  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95368
 
Jacob, looks like you were a day early in shorting KLIC as it is up over 75 cents as I type.

ELH



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50642)1/19/2011 10:12:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95368
 
CREE 2Q11 earnings call notes:

The inventory correction has been caused by a pause in the China LED streetlight demand and lower-than-expected growth in LED bulb applications... ...we expect that distribution sales will be flat to down as the inventory correction continues in Q3...

We remain well positioned to lead this market and drive the adoption of LED lighting...

257M$ rev (4% down from 1Q11, missed expectations by 5%)
0.45$ GAAP EPS (guidance had been 0.46-0.50)
47% GAAP gross margins (in line, good execution)
cash 1.11B$, negligible debt

3Q11 guidance:
rev flat with 2Q
EPS GAAP 0.29-0.36

investor.cree.com
seekingalpha.com

Heavily shorted:
(CREE): Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Industry. Market cap of $7.3B. EPS projected to grow by 21.79% over the next five years. Current shares shorted at 22.13M (out of 111M total) vs. 18.93M shares shorted three months ago. Short float at 21.29% seekingalpha.com

CREE's $50 light bulb at Home Depot:
homedepot.com

my comments:
1. They warned, not just for next quarter, but for the next 2 quarters.
2. Other than wealthy Early Adopters, who is going to buy those $50 light bulbs?
3. Nice balance sheet. They can survive anything.
4. If all those shorts are wrong, there is going to be an impressive short squeeze at some point...