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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50669)	1/7/2011 3:10:56 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95564

Hi RtS, I'm inclined to agree with your analysis. Note Macd has turned upward. I'm of the general opinion that Stochastics more often than not will give you a clue on where Macd is going. In your case Stochastics signaled the uptrend that has now also dveloped in macd. We'd need to see lower highs in Stochastics as Macd flatlined(as if it was putting in a rollover) before I'd be going short. I have no positions in either stock. Bob Hope that doesn't hurt anyone as I wasn't asked to but in.I value both of you guys and your trades. I'll go back to sleep now.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50669)	1/7/2011 4:17:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95564

The KLIC technical picture may look OK, but the fundamentals looking forward compared to this past year don't look all that good. The 2 charts show a brief history and future estimates of revenue and earnings. There are 4 or 5 analysts that follow KLIC so this is their consensus. Revenue for FY10 was 763M, and the estimate for FY11 is 624M, down about 140M. Earnings for FY10 were 1.92, and the estimate for FY11 is 0.95. The charts show the quarters for more detail. Both parameters, revenue and earnings, show a big drop for the 1st quarter compared to the 4th quarter of FY10 with very little growth for the remaining quarters of FY11.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50669)	1/7/2011 4:52:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95564

re KLIC charts: Since I've already been proven wrong about the declining channel, I could easily be wrong about other things, too. But I'm very confident that KLIC's earnings, margins, and revenue are at or near cycle peak numbers, so the fundamentals don't get any better from here on. I'm also quite confident that, when the cycle turns down, KLIC will go below $5. Last downcycle it went to $1.11. I'm very uncertain about the timing of all this. Could be next month; could be next year. I have, on occasion, held shorts for more than a year. If KLIC keeps going up, I'm prepared to do that again. Since it doesn't pay a dividend, and I'm sitting on cash with nothing I want to buy (long, that is), it costs me nothing to be patient. I hope you make money on your long KLIC bet (doing anything with KLIC, long or short, is gambling). I hope my posts are useful to you. Your posts, whether you agree with me or not, are useful to me.