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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50702)	1/9/2011 2:21:02 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95563

RtS, very interesting analysis by Leavitt Bros. I always like to hear what they have to say and the charts they show. I thought I would add a little more dialogue about the SOX action of this past week. The chart shows the very strong jump in the SOX value of about 14 points to close at about 425. This good start to 2011 can be compared to the 1st week in 2010 that was also positive. The action this week could be construed as a continuation of the uptrend that started this past September, and maybe it is, or maybe not. The ATHR news this past week had a very big impact on the SOX index. To review this impact again, the 13 week table posted this week is shown below the chart. Looking at the bottom line for this past week, the SOXM is up 2.1 percent and the SOX 3.5 percent. The SMH is up 0.9 percent. The SMH plus the other 3 major indices are in the 1 to 2 percent range. To get an idea of the ATHR effect on the bottom line SOXM number, an arbitrary change was made to ATHR percent gain from 24.4 to 3 percent. This made the SOXM percent change go from 2.1 to 0.9 percent, or an impact of 1.2 percent. I don't know what impact this would have on the SOX number of 3.4 percent, but it would probably reduce the 3.4 number to close to 2 percent. Whatever the real number would be, it would have a big effect on the chart visual. Lets look at the bottom line numbers in the table starting with the week ending 12/10. The action for the SOX since that date has been flat to down until this past week. I would argue that without the effect of ATHR this week, the net result would be very close to a flat sideways SOX action since the week of 12/10. During the week of 12/10, the SOX closed at 416.69. Taking out the effect of ATHR this week would probably drop the 425.76 number pretty close to the 416.69 number. What does this all mean? Probably nothing, but I am in the camp of very watchful waiting, to see the action over the next 3 to 5 weeks of earnings reports.