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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (10834)	11/12/1997 4:41:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Richard, >>Time and again, when I check the chart on a stock, I am impressed with the reality that the "market" is pushing many of them back to where they were last Spring. I guess this is what we call a "correction?"<< My thinking exactly, the stocks are going back to their "fair value", expect a rally in Jan and fat gains on your AMAT investment next year and the year after!8^) Looking for >$40 by Feb 98. Just my opinion, BB

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (10834)	11/12/1997 7:14:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

<<<<<<If PC sales slow from 20% per annum to only 15%, that's a 25% slowdown.>>>> That's a slowdown in the growth rate.If you sell 100 widgets,and are expected to sell 120, when growth slows, you now sell 115. >>>>So, what will AMAT look like if it has 25% lower earnings and is pushed down to a P/E of only 15?<<<< As shown, AMAT e will not be DOWN 25%.This has to be the type of thinking that shows the bottom is near. If AMAT's e end up being disappointing in the next 12 months, 1.80 is still very likely. That is 33% below some estimates. A pe of 15 gives us a price of 27. It is highly probable that the year after, e would grow significantly. This isn't hype.This recent pasting is delaying the inevitable. The probability of AMAT e 3-5 dollars per share within 4 years is about 100%,imo. In the meantime, no one should buy or hold this stock if they can't tolerate a 60% decline. Furthermore, if they don't add to their position if that type of drop occurs, they need to own another stock. It is interesting to note that the perfect time to sell, if you are a trader, was when we were all trying to come up with an indicator to sell near the top. I made a suggestion that no time was good, when this company returns 35% on average.No one liked that idea because it is understood that amat historically has 60+% declines.So, why not try to time the top? So much for that idea. Timing the bottom is as difficult. AMAT is a clear bargain now. Will it go lower? I would say for sure it will.An investor must control their portfolio, and use entry points. I bought more KLAC today, since the sky is falling. I was going to hold off on more AMATuntil the conference call. But I will buy more at 27,25,22 and 20. After that I will margin big to buy at 15 to complete the position. Gene