To: ChanceIs who wrote (143592 ) 1/11/2011 10:12:00 AM From: Dennis Roth 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206093 OT: The Debt of Nations 7 January 2011 - 84 pagescitigroupgeo.com More Fodder to feed your fears. excerpts:... in our view, the consolidated Irish sovereign and Irish domestic financial system is insolvent — the Irish banks are ‘too big to save’ for the Irish sovereign. The Irish sovereign cannot ‘bail out’ the banks from its own resources and make its own creditors — the owners of Irish sovereign debt — whole. In addition, a bail-out (permanent fiscal transfer) from EA/EU partners or the ECB on a scale sufficient to fill the solvency gap is most unlikely. Therefore, either the unsecured and non-sovereign-guaranteed creditors of the banks, or the creditors of the sovereign (including holders of sovereign-guaranteed bank debt), or both, will likely eventually have to accept sovereign debt restructuring with a net present discounted value (NPV) of debt service haircut, even if this is not a condition for accessing the EFSM or EFSF at present... ...Greece’s sovereign is manifestly insolvent, in our view, all the more so after the recent public debt and deficit revisions. As long as Greece remains sufficiently compliant with the conditionality of its EA/IMF support programme, sovereign debt restructuring is likely to be postponed until mid-2013, when its EA/IMF programme expires. At that point, it is likely to be transferred to the EFSF or its successor, the ESM, and its debt may be restructured, including NPV haircuts... ...Outside the euro area, the US and Japan likely cannot continue to ignore issues of fiscal sustainability... ...Instead, the Congress and the White House agreed to pass a short-term fiscal stimulus without any associated credible commitment to reverse, through medium-term fiscal tightening, the impact of the stimulus on the federal budget deficit... ...In Japan, no serious discussion of fiscal consolidation is taking place as yet, and there is no evidence of actual consolidation. It too, is piling Pelion on Ossa by recently passing another small fiscal stimulus . Relatively high debt levels and funding requirements — by emerging economy standards — in Hungary imply that the Fidesz government needs to shift its attention from confrontational rhetoric and one-off populist revenue measures towards effective measures to rein in public spending. Argentina-style raids by the state on private pension funds are unlikely to provide a stable source of sovereign funding...