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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (9730)	1/11/2011 11:36:46 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

RE:There has been more attention given to the concept over the past decade because the flooding has been more frequent and more intense. So we have had multiple 500 year floods in the Mississippi flood plain since 1993? I totally missed these stories... It is amazing what you can do with statistics.

To: Sam who wrote (9730)	1/11/2011 1:03:48 PM
From: Sweet Ol	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

OT: Sam, in a previous life I built statistical computer models and I know how unreliable they are. The problem is that they are inferring long-term statistics from too small a sample. The hydrologists have only 20-50 years of accurate flood data to feed into their model and then they try to create 1/500 probabilities. Look at how faulty computer models used to forecast the stock market! Or even reasonably short term weather forecasts. Here the problem is they do not have all the variables in their models. The black swan events always cause you to miss your target. We get over confident when we have a period of successful predictions because things are relatively stable. Again, just look at your own record of stock picking. Some good, some bad, never perfect! Blessings, JRH