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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (6909)	11/12/1997 5:10:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Hank, your TA on CTXS is good and it is now trading in a TA mode. But I think events from the fundamental side will begin to dominate. I look forward to seeing the 10q and find out just how much of those "blowout earnings" were manufactured with the MSFT money. From a charting point of view there is no support in the 60 to 70 range.

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (6909)	11/12/1997 9:42:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Brother's, IMO tech analysis by itself does not work. No one knows what will really happen. Probably your intuition/feeling is as good as any other form of analysis. I for example try to use some kind of benchmarking of past prices against fundamentals (it also fails! IMO COMS was not very likely to drop bellow 35!) For example I would reason: If it was trading on the average around $-- when the market was -- bellow where it is now, then with this great news and higher market it would be reasonable to assume it will not trade bellow such levels (a similar argument can be use for bad news on a short). e.g., with the current fundamentals on IPIC I would not expect it to trade at 12 or above. Let's see... Pancho

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (6909)	11/13/1997 10:43:00 AM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Mike, where do you see the H&S? I think it's risky to call a H&S at the head. Really, this chart pattern can only be relied-upon in retrospect. The first point at which I would call a H&S top would be on the drop from the right shoulder. Yes, I see a head in Oct-Nov, with a long left shoulder Jun or Jul through Oct. However, a special situation created the left shoulder, and so I don't know how much credence I give it. You might see a mini-H&S in October, but that's way too short to be a real H&S. So, I'd say we'd have to be in the 40's somewhere before you could really cal a H&S. Because they take so long to complete, and can't be called till they are almost or fully complete, I think that H&S formations are useful primarly for calling major market turns - when we see H&S tops in the market averages, and in many individual stocks, we will be in a bear market. (And of course will already be well into it!)