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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Francis Matthews who wrote (3598)	11/12/1997 6:14:00 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

I agree. My fair value is about $28, though. Nevertheless I think it will not go under $30 because of the uniqueness of the stock. It has a psychological value: same as MSFT and AOL. Overvalued, but unique. INTC was like that until recently. Then AMD and CYRX showed that Intel is not unique. Of course, I do not count IFMX and SYBS as competition. They are pathetic. BAANF and SAPF are different. The fact is that ORCL is the only recognized database company. The others are too much behind (including MSFT, IBM). In the near future investors will figure out that ORCL is posed to benefit greatly from the Y2000 problem: instead of reparing old code, many companies will buy new software. Oracle-8, for instance.

To: Francis Matthews who wrote (3598)	11/13/1997 10:14:00 AM
From: jim shiau	Respond to of 19080

>Because ORCL is overvalued. Look at its eps growth for the past several quarters, about 35%. So the fair value for ORCL under the current market situation is about $25. MSFT is even more overvalued and due to a sharp correction any time in the next two quarters. ORCL made $.89 in the last 4 qtrs and will make $1.15 in the next 4 qtrs (based on Zacks). If you calculate the fair based on the trail earning, and the fair value is $.8935=$31.15. If based on the forward earning, and the fair value is $1.1535=$40.25. Do you mind to tell me how you calculate your $25 value ? Jim S.