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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (41096)	1/18/2011 7:27:10 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78666

I really appreciate you sharing your expertise in this area. The more I invest/speculate the more i realize its pretty much a bet on other people who seem to know what they are doing, whether it be large companies like GOOG and IBM or small ones like GFRE or TTT. as usual i am pretty fully invested. down to accumulating 1% positions or less now., until i part with something that i own. a lot of my taxable portfolio i am sitting with healthy gains now. it just doesnt makes sense to me to sell unless i think its 20% overvalued or i can offset losses against it. right now the only loser in the portfolio is cown. so right now i feel like im fighting with one hand behind my back. if i sell profitable short term positions in the taxable account the tax bite is even worse. up to 35%. fortunately the ssn is in a retirement account. IBM reported decent numbers supporting my long term position in it. I hope it can produce annual per share gains in the 15% range for several years going forward and the same for goog and v. One of the fast money guys noted that IBM is more of a software than hardware company yet its got a multiple like its a hardware company. I am trying to decide whether its worth putting money into nly. those guys seem to know what they are doing but they have also been leveraging up during a period of declining rates. its hard to figure out whether they will do ok in a rising rate situation. any thoughts?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (41096)	1/24/2011 1:38:19 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

Arsenal Energy (AEI.to/AEYIF): Stock has fallen today with several others in the oil sector. I'll consider it as an opportunity to add shares to my position. finance.yahoo.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (41096)	1/25/2011 4:45:41 PM
From: 7 Years	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78666

Paul - Thanks for your insight into AEI.TO and TOL.V, and E_K_S for mentioning SPE.TO. Trying to get a handle on why one company deserves a certain share price over another (may never happen). Using AEI.TO, SPE.TO and TOL.V to start. I also review the weekly and monthly charts for historical purposes. All are junior oil companies, and exploring/producing in good areas. All have been raising money through financing. I have perused the company web sites and try to compare apples to apples (I do not find deciphering quarterly reports or financial statements easy). I took what you detailed on AEI.TO as a succinct start and compared it to SPE.TO and TOL.V, and here are my findings: Arsenal Energy (AEI.to/AEYIF) (almost entirely from your post): Founded (?) – in operation since at least 2004 1. It's 75% oil/gas 2. It's in N. Dakota Three Forks Bakken 3. It's in a couple of other shales (Central Alberta for light oil) 4. Current production approximately 2250 boe/d. Expect approximately "3300 boe/d exit rate '11; 85% oil". (2006 production was approximately 1900 boe/d) 5. Approximately 1M in cash on hand at end 3Q 6. Share price closed at 0.96 as of 25 Jan 11(highest share price 30 Sep 05 – 1.93) Spartan Exploration Ltd – SPE.TO Founded in 2008 1. Current production 82% oil 2. In Pembina central Alberta and the Cardium. Also in SW and SE Saskatchewan 3. Into shales (?) 4. Approximately 1800 boe/d in 2010 to be increased to 2500 to 3000 boe/d by end 2011. 5. Has 2.2M working capital and a 12M line of credit (not being used according to Dec 2010 presentation) 6. Share price closed at 5.22 as of 25 Jan 11 TriOil Resources – TOL.TO Founded in 2009 1. Current production approximately 45% oil/55% gas 2. In Sanish and Bakken – SE Saskatchewan. In Pekisko light oil resource play at Queenstown, S. Alberta 3. Into shales (?) 4. Current production approx 1500 boe/d. Details for 2011 to be stated in Jan 2011. 5. Trouble reading financials – going to get the daughter to explain them to me. 6. Share price closed at 4.50 as of 25 Jan 11. Interesting look into these companies. Be hard pressed to delineate between the three. The way the market is right now, probably best to monitor and see what the next quarters and presentations bring. Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated. I do not own any at this time. Cheers Ernest