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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (41143)	1/23/2011 12:39:23 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78915

AAPL - tough question. The valuation is lower, but the market cap is 1/3 higher, which means that law of large numbers affect them even more than Google. Also the growth has been tremendous, but IMHO the moat is easier to cross than Google's search moat. E.g. there is a real risk that Android will Microsoft (that's a verb :P) iPhone. And I am not sure whether tablet war is over. Finally loss of Jobs is very significant whatever the Fruities will tell you. So I feel that in some way AAPL is quite extended where they are and they will have to do some heavy lifting to maintain and gain from here. The really big question with AAPL is whether they can ever get out of the niche player in PCs. Yeah, they have gone a long way and they have a very loyal crowd playing for them, but they are still working with a niche mentality in a lot of ways. If they can expand to a point where they are supermajor player, both current market cap and a bigger one could be justified. Valuation wise, I should sell GOOG and buy AAPL. However, I don't know if I will do it. I may establish small position in AAPL if the stock falls to $300 or so. But I just don't know. :)