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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50936)	1/23/2011 8:41:58 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95520

RtS, Since the March 09 bottom, the SPX is up a little over 90 percent. This is good performance in a little under 2 years, and as you expect(I do too), that this will be another up year, a fall below the Mar 09 low will be a long way to go. However, this event is certainly not impossible. A lot of things could go "wrong" in the U.S. and World to enable this to happen. If another down leg of this magnitude should happen, the rest of the World markets will probably be there right along with the U.S. The chart below is borrowed from the dshort website showing how the major World indices compare to the SPX since the Mar 09 bottom. Notice the different peaks in valuation for the various indices. The most notable is the Shanghai which peaked in Jul of 09 and is about 1/2 of what it was then. dshort.com

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50936)	1/24/2011 3:35:48 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

<Do we eventually retest or go even lower than the 2009 bottom?> Yes. You didn't put a time frame on this. If you asked whether it was going to happen in 2011, I'd say, "flip a coin". "Eventually" could be 5 or 10 years out. The one caveat is, this may only happen with inflation-adjusted dollars. The bottom of the secular bear market (began in 2000), will happen when: 1. the debts of broke banks, European governments, U.S. States are written off, not just shuffled around. We're not even close. 2. housing prices start going back up in the U.S. (years away from now) 3. inflation everywhere forces a return to old-fashioned fiscal responsibility 4. alternative energy sources replace fossil fuels. Until then, every economic recovery will see oil prices surge into the $100-150 range, which will kill the bull market. Again, we are years away.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (50936)	1/25/2011 4:46:43 PM
From: The Ox	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

Thread Poll; Is Amateur Investors going to be right? Do we eventually retest or go even lower than the 2009 bottom? No. I believe the 2009 low was THE last opportunity to buy the dow below 7K. The severity of the drop, nearly 55% from the previous high and the quickness of the move was a unique market event. The great depression's drop was more severe but circumstances surrounding it were much more diverse, 900% margin levels, world turmoil unlike any other time in history, etc... I believe there is a VERY good chance we can retrace up to 50% of the gains made since 2009 but I do not see us below the 2009 watermark....with the following note: An unexpected global event, whether man made or caused by nature, could create a circumstance where all bets are off. A nuclear device exploded, a once in a millenium earthquake or volcanic eruption....something along these lines would probably tank the market to the tune of 50% or more in short order. I give this a less then 5% chance of happening but one should always be aware that an unusual circumstance is always a possibility. I would say that even a move to the low/mid 9000s on the dow is very unlikely but one should consider the possibility. JMO TO