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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David S. who wrote (2746)11/12/1997 9:59:00 PM
From: Joe E.  Respond to of 6136
 
<<If you want to look at valuations, I just glanced at Vertex estimates. For 1999,
consensus is $1.93,which puts it at 19x. Consensus for AGPH for '99 = about
$2.00, since FY '99=$1.76 consensus. So, AGPH is at 20x cal. '99>>

IMO Vertex may not have any product sales in 1999. Probably will, but not necessarily. Agouron will have product sales, and they are not so hard to forecast, given that the company has a track record now. So this makes Vertex's earnings forecast a little less solid than Agouron's. Vertex is rolling in cash, though. Merck is at about 17x '99 EPS.



To: David S. who wrote (2746)11/13/1997 12:40:00 AM
From: Stewart Whitman  Respond to of 6136
 
> [Vertex estimates] For 1999, consensus is $1.93,which puts it at 19x. Consensus for AGPH for '99 = about $2.00, since FY '99=$1.76 consensus. So, AGPH is at 20x cal. '99

Hmmm... AGPH earnings have a tax credit for prior losses deducted from them, so the "real" income is actually higher. Are Vertex earnings similarily calculated? Then again, maybe AGPH tax credits won't last that long with the current earnings.

Stew


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