To: TechAlive who wrote (10112 ) 11/12/1997 10:07:00 PM From: Ming Read Replies (2) | Respond to
This si my first post on this thread in 4 months. Back in June, I sold 3com at 48, and listed in a series of posts my concerns about increasing competition and slowing sales for COMS, as well as the spectre of a global equity selloff. Most of the people on this thread back then(None of which seems to still be present, wrote off my arguments, and simply regarded me as crazy. I said that in a crash, 3com could go to 20/share. It seems 15 is more likely. Now, in light of what has been happening in the past few weeks, I guess my predictions don't sound so unrealistic afterall. 3com is a good company,no doubt, and at 15 it is an attractive buy. For those of you whom are long-term, hold on tight. For those of you who are speculating, take your losses and wait out this plunge. For shorters, the best is yet to come. The U.S. economy isn't in any better shape, compared to its Asian brethren. The layoffs announced by Kodak, IBM, WMX, among others, are going to seriously rock the U.S. economy. THose 3 alone, which means the disappearance of 15000 high paying jobs, could knock 0.1-0.2% off the 98 GDP. Coupled with many others, and record rates of personal bankrupcies, credit-card delinquincies, and record low savings rates, I predict a severe recession(if not a depression) to hit the U.S. next year. The Fed knows this. THey probably won't raise rates again this century. For the short term, South Korea, BRazil and Japan are of grave concern. These economies dwarf the Asian Tigers, and a liquidity crisis in them will be catastrophic. If the Nikkei falls below 14500, mass repatriations of capital will occur, as Japanese financial institutions shore up their balance sheets. The high dollar and low Asian currencies will make Micron, Texas Instruments, IBM, Kodak, among others, earnings victims in the 4th quarter. Devaluating the dollar is the only way the U.S. can compete with these countries. Invest with caution! This may seem off-topic, but these factors directly affect 3com's price. Go to the meltdownthread if you're interested in debating ideas about the current market situation.
