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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTMHouston who wrote (8497)	11/12/1997 11:31:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

Intresting conversation from IRC.. Just for kicks.. * Joins: DollrBill (~pls@bak-ppp-37.netxn.com) <AlienTech> eeek <DollrBill> evening at! <AlienTech> hey $ <AlienTech> wheres the beef? <DollrBill> hows the weather up there? <AlienTech> hey $ how long you been doing this? <AlienTech> weathers great.. too bad my pocket book aint as good <DollrBill> just took it off the grill! <DollrBill> har <DollrBill> doing what? <DollrBill> i hear ya <AlienTech> trading <DollrBill> about 10 years.. <AlienTech> wow <DollrBill> via the net a year.. <AlienTech> what do you think is going on? <DollrBill> hey ..dont be impressed.. <AlienTech> I only been doing this 6 months really.. <DollrBill> well, this should be a great learning experience <DollrBill> ok heres my take... <DollrBill> and remeber this and 1.50 will get you a cup of java.. <AlienTech> not around here.. java costs $3.50 <DollrBill> first, on some stocks i think margin selling has quicked in.. <DollrBill> examples...WDC, COMS, and QNTM <DollrBill> i think you hold a few of those, as I do.. <DollrBill> do you know what i am referring to, ie margin selling? <AlienTech> means people bought 3 times more number of shares than they had money for <AlienTech> so either they sell the winner and if you dont have any winners you liqudate what ever you hold <DollrBill> well ya..but the houses have the righ to liquidate the assets, without authorization if in the event the margin ratio drops.. * Parts: Cnote (ortac@dial-118-TNT-BTVT-01.ramp.together.net) <DollrBill> i think, imho, that is what is occurring now.. <DollrBill> at its curshing the values on these stocks..and its a vicious circle.. <AlienTech> well eith schwab the margin was like 30% if it drops to 25% you get money in fast or they sell it to get back to 50+% <DollrBill> the lower the price...the more that you may have to sell to meet margin requirements.. <DollrBill> and that affects the mkt as a whole as well.. <DollrBill> exactly AT, if you dont pay Guido..they sell it.. <AlienTech> so you think mega people are having mega margin problems and the fuds staying on the side lines so the price drops even faster and further <DollrBill> now, we have an intersesting stiutation here... <DollrBill> as you know, option experiation is the 21 <AlienTech> next friday <DollrBill> i think that is exactly what is happening! <DollrBill> no, a week from this upcoming friday.. <AlienTech> yea thats what I ment.. <DollrBill> 3rd friday of the month...always.. <DollrBill> k? <AlienTech> but with the numebr of puts outstanding, whats the stock prices going to do now? <DollrBill> ok.. <DollrBill> now, to be honest..i beleive that most options are already, pardon the french, fucked... <DollrBill> i think that the "volume" of options is way down, because of the crash at the end of October.. <DollrBill> and i think that a lot of people "bet" on calls, assuming that the mkt would rebound..after the crash, <DollrBill> thus a lot of opotions are gonna expire worthless.. <DollrBill> adding cash problems again, similar to margin calls.. <DollrBill> k? <DollrBill> thus in the next 2 weeks..its gonna be a rough and tumble mkt.. <AlienTech> yep.. any calls you bought in the past 4 months or so which expires in nov are dead meat <DollrBill> exactly! <DollrBill> now..there is one saving grace, as I see it.. <AlienTech> you see a light? <AlienTech> laugh <DollrBill> i mentioned this today on the channel...regarding funds that liquidated assets in the event the funds had redemtions...after the crash from investors.. <DollrBill> few investors made redmetions, thus the funds are sitting on piles and piles of cash right now! <DollrBill> i mean piles! <DollrBill> k? <DollrBill> now, there is one other factor...that comes into play.. <DollrBill> its know as, or called the 30 day wash rule.. <AlienTech> well from a while guess I would thin k10% now almost 15-20% of the money is in cash <DollrBill> essentilly it is this..if you cash in stocks...you have 30 days to "reinvest" that money in order to avoid a tax liability.. <DollrBill> that is from the funds perpsective..ok? <AlienTech> yea I heard about the wash rule <DollrBill> ok.. <DollrBill> well..look at a calendar... <DollrBill> the 30 days starts for them on Monday the 24.. <DollrBill> monday following option expirations.. <DollrBill> the timing is fucking perfect! <AlienTech> monday last month? or this comming month <DollrBill> now all these funds/analysts are issuing downgrades..on everything.. <DollrBill> monday this month.. <AlienTech> so I noticed <DollrBill> the crash happened on 27..they have 30 days.. <DollrBill> remember though..thanksgiving holidays.. <DollrBill> ok..so the guys are issuing downgrades... <AlienTech> so so their 30 days ends in 2 weeks <DollrBill> in the mean time stocks are plummeting.. <DollrBill> IMHO what they are doing is setting up perfect buying opportunites.. <DollrBill> yep...30 days the clock is ticking.. <ruint> mine too <ruint> my ho <DollrBill> by downgrading everything in site, by allowing these margin calls to ahppen, options are dead meat (as you said).. <DollrBill> is it a good time to buy??? ie in a about 2 week? <ruint> db u smart <DollrBill> nah...im stupid..becasue this came to me yesterday <DollrBill> and those fuckers have me beat!!! <DollrBill> so..if you like me... <DollrBill> i gotta hold..have no choice.. <AlienTech> well remember, when one of the majors jump in the rest will follow real fast or get left behind.. so its not perfect.. <DollrBill> im telling in December, watch all the fucking upgrades come streaming out.. <DollrBill> thats why they are all issuing "duplicate" downgrades.. <AlienTech> I would think buying a bit here and there now would be the thing to do <DollrBill> hey, they all talk..to kid yourself... <DollrBill> when these guys realized the timing here..its perfect <DollrBill> ig you can buy now..sure.. <DollrBill> defensive stocks.. <DollrBill> and, i posted this today.. <DollrBill> i think no fund manager in hir right mind...is gonna risk is yr end bonus.. <DollrBill> what they will be buying is the "blue chips" of the respective mkts.. <DollrBill> safest bet going.. <AlienTech> well some of these downgrades dont make ANY sence.. I mean the companies would themselves know more of whats going on than the analyists, like the semis' I havent heard of ONE company issuing cautious outlooks.. Which is why I was like DUH! <DollrBill> exactly craig...they are maniuplating the mkt..right now.. <DollrBill> look at WDC.. <DollrBill> $19.00 give me a fucking break! <DollrBill> do the FA...its between 42 and 44 at the downgraded earnings <AlienTech> well I do think $19 for a company like wdc is going a tad low no matter what.. I mean if it was a serious problem I can see.. I can see APM at 19, but no way with wdc <DollrBill> i agre..i own the sob.. * Joins: Goodby (~Bypass@1Cust36.tnt3.long-beach.ca.da.uu.net) <DollrBill> same thing with QNTM..the only DD maker to BEAT the street, no inventory probs.. <DollrBill> go figure.. * Parts: Goodby (~Bypass@1Cust36.tnt3.long-beach.ca.da.uu.net) <AlienTech> yea I am sorta flabber gast at qntm, I mean I can see it fall a point or two in sympathy, but a 5 point drop I thought was a tad over done <DollrBill> again , iMHO, margin selling is what crushed it today.. <AlienTech> You know when all these big wigs keep saying we need to vist the lows again to make the double bottom and next year we will see 10k I am like duh man.. But I belive it you know, cause they will make it happen <ruint> mind tooo <ruint> brb nbr is on <AlienTech> I know lots of people who bougth wdc @ 40+ in fact everyone who got into it the past 5 months or so.. <DollrBill> yep, and history tells us we will test the lows.. <DollrBill> yep.. <DollrBill> hell cragi i was trading it at 48 -52 in September! <DollrBill> grrrr <AlienTech> well we are at the lows, look at all the individual stocks, a lot of them are below the lows of monday <AlienTech> byt the way $ I am joe.. <AlienTech> Craig_C is crissman.. of APM.. <DollrBill> oh im sorry...i thought it was craig.. <AlienTech> yea craig got me in trouble.. <DollrBill> my apologies <AlienTech> no prob <AlienTech> so we should get to see a few more rounds of margin selling then <DollrBill> yah im afraid so.. <AlienTech> did you read ls's post? <AlienTech> cme.com <AlienTech> ops Set your stops at yesterday's high. <AlienTech> what does that mean? sell stops?? <DollrBill> no on the post.. <AlienTech> well thats what ls said.. I think he means put in sell stops at the price or buy in at the price <AlienTech> wooow s&p up 720 now @ 915.. not good.. kinda weird since it broke 910 which was supposed to be quite strong