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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10907)	11/12/1997 11:56:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Buck...The turnaround will come when the overcapacity is soaked up, especially in the commodity chip area....New fabs and expansions needs to be cut back, chip growth needs to spike up...At this point if folks keep expanding fabs...this thing could go on for a long time....so it all depends how drasticaly the fabs scale back their ambitious 1998 plans. I have a feeling that 1998 cap spending will be lower than 1997. I have a feeling that Bagley's conf call may not bailout the semi's....analysts will wait for a clear sign before they decide to jump in again. 1999 is looking good as the start of a new upcycle in semi cap spending....just my opinion. dave

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10907)	11/13/1997 12:38:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, you said to Dave >What, in your opinion, will be the catalyst for reversing the downturn in the semi sector and semi-mfg equipment.< Is there any evidence of a down-turn in the semi mfg sector? And I don't mean stock prices. GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10907)	11/13/1997 10:37:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

big bucks you are making a supozition a fact... there are many reasons why there might not be a slowdown at all. I have detailed these in previous posts, but they include european expansion now, and the fact that a great % of fabs construction in developing nations is now subsidized in some way by govenment.... it beliving that this are strategically essential to economic growth. Everything that I have seen posted to this thread with regards to europe including posts by dave dhillon shows the european expansion very much in place. European growth will also to some extent strengthen SEA demand, because they will not allow themselves to lose market share or become technologically 2nd class. by the way I am not saying that the trouble in SEA is insignificant or should be treated lightly.... it was worry about SEA that caused me to set stop losses and sell at 100, and it was the the cavilier attitude with which the problem was being treated on this thread that prompted me to pony up my $75 so I might warn that things that go up do also come down.... but there is no real evidence a this point that thev AMAT story is seriously threatened, just a lot of fear and hype. My guess is still that this is not 95 and AMAT will grow revenues and have positive BB through next year. Also my understanding was that intel had aquired all alpha production in the settlement... is that wrong!!!