hello ac, i am of the views that ...
- assets w/i usa domain would be chopped down by 50-80% in real terms (purchasing value however defined, not necessarily against gold) by combined actions of inflation of all one needs and deflation of all one has
- assets w/i usa domain may be chopped down by 98% against gold, silver, platinum, palladium
- the big cap intl shares listed on nyse may do better, in real terms, and may in fact do tremendous in nominal terms, but there is a time to enter those as and when another crisis is upon us
- usa domain shall likely be pressed into a zimbabwe situation, and its shares go boom in local currency terms, but not before onset of at least another, and more serious 'deflation' crisis that clarifies what passes for 'thinking' of the electorates
- the clarifying events might well be unimaginable, only much more mixing-it-up and violent, because people take their assets seriously and do not like to feel cheated (as opposed to simply be cheated).
i.e. the usa is due for some dramatic happenings unless one is foolish enough to subscribe to the founding mythology, drink the koolaid and have faith in exceptionalism, and refuse to heed the scripture teachings.
i do not see what would prevent team usa from continuing to march along a path to disaster, because isfaiac, its leaders are mostly laughable and incompetent, and the electorates in the main are growing more (not less) ignorant and needy.
iow, team usa has been living off of a legacy based on a crime enhanced by some accidents, and wakeup time must sometimes be.
basically i do not believe usa stocks are in the aggregate screaming buys.
- i do have some usa-listed shares such as paas and gdx and fcx, am studying igf, and have some shorted puts outstanding on nly
- as for technology companies, i do have petrobank (oil sand technology :0) and a private equity (on the books at 1.3% allocation) that could prove out to be 50-100% of nav
- as for vietnam, russia, malaysia ... i pass, except for occasional dallying, as one would at some party with someone
- as for mainland shares, i again pass, because i know to pass, but i do have shenhua energy listed in hong kong, because in know the biz and the company, and can take a joke
- i do have a bunch of hotsie totsie aussie shares, for business as well as speculation reasons, and i am reminded to file a report on one such beast to pezz
- the concentration of allocation to hk-based rental real estate is at once a top-down macro-driven decision, a matter of practicality, and simply a good idea
macro: hkd is pegged to the rapidly diluting usd, and borrowing rate is pegged to the usa 3-mths short rate;
hk economy is pegged to the china economy and pushed by global capital flows;
hk deposit rate is effectively zero, as the system is simply flooded with money that none know what to do with;
hk real estate is expensive, but amongst the expensive, there are some genuine bargains (relative value ocean-front abodes and absolute value industrial real estate in path of urban renewal programs)
practicality: absentee ownership of real estate in far away places had been tried, and results are merely ok, if one do not consider the hassle
simply a good idea: the real estate portfolio has done very well, almost keeping up with gold, and churns out monthly cash flow at 100% full occupancy under superb law regime and tax coding, wanted by n.americans and europeans who desire freedom, and by mainland chinese who wish for liberty
at negative real interest rate for as far as the eye can no longer see, hk folks have no other obvious place to put their money
should the hk real estate wobble, one must treat the wobble as buying opportunity, because hk economy is tied to the china economy, and hkdollar is pegged to the usdollar, and because as politics go more extreme elsewhere and tax net spreads wider, hk becomes more desirable even as its real estate ramps
should hkg real estate get permanently hobble, fine, all living expenses would adjust downward in line with real estate rentals
my true attitude re hk real estate is perhaps colored by fact that i am not leveraged
regarding <<worldwide inflation, leading to interest rate hikes/financial tightening of easy money policies worldwide, leading to pressure on precious metal prices as the latter do not earn 'normal' income>>, imo
- there must and shall be inflation, and there would be fake-outs of tightening
- but that is all, as i believe helicopter bernanke and the usa elite, for they mean to 'buy everything with fiat money' because the fate of the empire is at the stake, even as the destiny is ordained same for all empires
people tend to read messages into what i believe/write through a ethno-political lens, and not realize that i am about as far from any ethno-political corner as can be.
i am a hakka chinese french creole trinidad tobago refugee with indonesian hong kong chinese canadian wife and hong kong chinese canadian kids whose primary language is english, and we live in hong kong, by choice, and we do not live in n.america or mainland china, by choice, is all.
i cannot help seeing what i see, and i must act in accordance with with what i believe i see and so think, is all.
w/r to my position on gold and platinum, in particular, and silver in association, i merely trade the paper and use the profit to buy physical (not physical silver; only au and pt, with a bit of pd).
it is more a computer game than investment, and seems to work, especially as a good bit of the profit is derived from option writing - 'cloud atm' in my language.
cheers, tj |
