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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97833)	2/1/2011 9:03:07 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

I still have the April 2009 post where he warned someone off buying the Dow at 8400 because it was too dangerous; who would want an investment adviser who is wrong for years on end and misses 40% moves in the market? He has become a caricature of himself. I wonder if he ever backtracked on his oft-repeated claim that Bernanke could never stave off the deflation monster.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97833)	2/1/2011 10:06:56 AM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 118717

The FED needs to own a bigger chunk of the US debt. We can't keep relying on China and other countries to keep buying our debt. Both QE1 and QE2 helped boost bond yields higher and keep the economy rolling. The FED has very little exposure to the low yields when rates were down near 2.6% a couple months ago. Since then, rates have done nothing but grind higher enabling the FED to keep purchasing at higher yields. By the time the QE2 is done this summer, I would expect most of the inflation and rise in interest rates will be out of the way. Ironically, the FED purchase of Treasuries might have help slow down growth in areas like China and India faster. If they reduce the amount of borrowings they can buy from the US, it might reduce their ability to flood the US with exports from their local economies. Hopefully, that slows them down for a couple years til they can build some domestic consumption. By that point, a rise in FED funds rates might actually have the desired effect of taming inflation expectations. First, they need to let the market deal with everything on it's own. I'm selling my position in BLK today to add more to industrials and ag stocks. I don't want to be adding new money to the market til we get through this week and the early part of next week to see if the market retests last Friday's low. Trend wise Dollar is still bearish on a monthly pattern Bond yields are rising on a monthly basis VIX is declining every month DOW is climbing every month Oil prices are rising every month Stocks look cheap across the board on 2011 and 2012 estimates, maybe even cheaper than they looked last year since earnings were still a mess. Banks look very good for the next 2 years as loan losses continue to head lower and revenues begin to grow from 2011 to 2012. Sector wise, the two asset classes that look the weakest are bonds and consumer goods. Inflation might chip away at gross margins for consumer goods stocks this year, so I'm rebalancing those positions with coal, industrials, and ag stocks right now. Cash is at 15%, my guess is that most of that money will be redeployed in banks or commodities over the next week or so. Very little use for big cap growth at the moment.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97833)	2/1/2011 10:44:27 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

Our monetary policy is meant to help this country. same with China.. Problem for the US and Bernanke is that China et al have juice now.. and the US has huge debt, too high expectation of living standard.. ..jobs and productivity do not marry together unless you have rapid expansion of markets. to sell into.. I do not see a recovery as much as a muddling through... if jobs do not show up.. you get market recovery and not economy recovery.. I do not see jobs showing up ... Bernarke's choices are raise rates eventually despite high unemployment .. or become Argentina north.. one solution is transitory pain.. The other is bad and indelible.. US GDP expansion I BET is tied to EM strength.. I should have more GTE when buying MHR this last week or so :O) but MHR wants to turn here There has always been Ethyl (play on words :O) youtube.com