To: jbn3 who wrote (21375 ) 11/13/1997 4:23:00 AM From: William C. Spaulding Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Folks, I can't say where this market is going, but I will warn you all not to be margined, and not to have any investments that you don't feel comfortable holding if the market continues to tank. I know Dell is a great company and I'm not saying otherwise, but that doesn't mean it can't decline considerably. It is certainly not unrealistic that it may decline below 50. I know this thought is repugnant to those of you who still believe in the bull, but it's a realistic possibility, nonetheless. I'm not saying that it will continue to tank; I'm only saying that you should be prepared if it does. Ask yourself this: What would you do if Dell does go down to 50, 40, or less? How would you feel? If you can weather the storm, great! But if you can't, then you better lower your risk exposure. If the market continues to decline, then Dell will go with it regardless of the earnings it reports. This is exactly what happened in 1995. And don't necessarily be convinced the bull is still running if there are a few up days. There will be, but they may be just blips in the declining chart. There were a few good days in the last 2 months of 1995, especially at the beginning of December and toward the end of the year, but the trend was still clearly downward anyway. Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that you should be prepared if it does happen. This market is spooking a lot of people who are taking their profits out now while they still can (in their minds), and this will pressure the market. I, myself, have decided to stay out of the market until mid-January, since earnings times are usually more predictable (but not in October). Good luck to the rest of you.
