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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (70896)	2/7/2011 6:58:07 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 217705

Yes, I've been pondering that and waiting for you to prompt me for the prognostication. <So when are you going to benefit us with your 20/20 foresight on gold for 2011? > It takes considerable energy, cogitation, contemplation and information to come up with these "hunches" as Hawk calls them. We have entered a realm of cusp-like variability, or as the CO2 Doomsters might call it, "Financial Change" which could leave many of us, or more likely most [due to friction and market clearing costs, political MADness and legal tolls] short-changed and life-changed on our expectations. On the way through the financial carnage of the previous few years, the process and political pressures were predictable. Now, it's becoming more tricky as proceedings in Egypt, Tunisia, Greece and elsewhere are showing. Those riots are not just a matter of dislike Mubarak or copying a neighbouring country or wanting democracy. If you look at the populations by age group in those countries and lots of African ones and including India, Pakistan and other places, you'll see a weighty load of young males predominating. Young males are notorious for energy, which well directed makes great wealth, and misdirected makes great carnage. Traditionally, [hundreds of years ago and all the way back through history before that] the solution for too many young males to take over the family farm and positions of power at court was to give them a sword, spear, or club and tell them to head over the horizon to claim new territory and women to enlarge the tribal realm and therefore power. Or maybe head north to help build the Great Wall of China, safely away from the women and centres of power. The winning males did well, the losers did not. The process was quite rapid, relentless and merciless which is why [combined with eugenics by females who prefer the alpha males and eliminate the DNA of the lower ranks] it is only 25,000 years ago that the father of all non-Africans left Africa to take over the whole lot [not that he imagined doing that]. There is something like half a billion underemployed males lurking around the world wondering what to do next, coming under pressure because of increasing food prices and increasing competition from other males. In China, there's a large shortage of females which destabilizes them further [rising incomes reduces the pressure somewhat there]. In Islamic Jihadland, there are hordes ready to rampage and who do so at the sketching of a cartoon. I'm leaning to more of the same [for pressures on gold price] so it isn't collapse in gold vs US$, but rising interest rates could put the kibosh on increases in gold for now. There has been four years of market clearing in real estate and debtly death, with Lehman and others long gone, so maybe things will smooth out and the government will stop wastrel debtly spending on feather-bedded overpaid hordes of spivs telling other people how to run their lives. Bankruptcy of cities and states will sort out a lot, but the federal government continues to spend like there is no tomorrow, which there probably won't be at this rate. Japan is 20 years into the process but they had a large rest of world to lean on economically. The world outside north America/Europe is not so large economically. Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (70896)	2/8/2011 12:05:38 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 217705

ROTF....

To: carranza2 who wrote (70896)	2/8/2011 9:46:03 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217705

This is what I'm trying to figure out: <QE1 imparted a small negative real interest rate residual. QE2 is pushing a large one. Thus, we've had something like a year of negative real rate. Regardless of the unemployment situation which I claim is in long term equilibrium and therefore needs no stimulus the assertion of sustained negative real rate will cause some gross distortion of some major economic quantity. Last time it was RE. The question is, what will it be this time?> It will be a bit of this and a lot of that, here and there. < So when are you going to benefit us with your 20/20 foresight on gold for 2011? > Mqurice