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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suma who wrote (41407)	2/12/2011 1:08:20 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Respond to of 78732

Suma - >>A dear friend bought 100 shares of Goog. Apple and CMG. She has made a lot of money on these three stocks. More than I have playing value plays. I mean ten thousand bucks since the beginning of the year. Nothing to sneeze at.<< These stocks mentioned above have gone up a little more than 10% this year already, there is not disputing this fact. However, does your friend ring the bell when these stocks are starting to go down? What is her/his long term track record? At any given time in a bull market, there are lot's of lucky monkeys in the market. the current bull market is very unusual, with nary a correction, almost as unusual than the bear market that began in 2008. My recommendation is to keep note of all those folks mentioning their returns and ask them again every year at the same time how they are doing. My guess is that you will see the effect of survivership bias in a few years rather dramatically.