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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (109613)	2/17/2011 9:35:57 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

After screwing around with this real estate bubble some draconian measures here. This looks like how Japan finally dealt with their bubble, and when know how bubbles end up. Under the rules, non-Beijing residents must have paid their monthly social security contribution or income tax for five consecutive years before they are eligible to buy their first apartment in the city. The rules also state that people with Beijing residence permits will be limited to two properties, and eligible non-locals will be allowed to buy only one. The rules will become a wind vane for other cities. chinadaily.com.cn

To: GST who wrote (109613)	2/17/2011 9:40:46 PM
From: russwinter	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I'm more bearish than Shilling. The commodity bubble will go along with China. I think there will be large banking and speculator losses when this happens. I predict some TBTF bank (or several)will fail on what in hindsight will be seen as wild shadow banking activities in developing markets including China.

To: GST who wrote (109613)	2/18/2011 9:36:49 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

In today's China Daily: chinadaily.com.cn SHANGHAI - The labor shortage in coastal cities that was predicted before the Chinese New Year holidays has now arrived and is more severe than anyone expected, according to employers who say they are scrambling to find enough workers. "In the past, we were able to attract migrant workers with our high salaries but 50 percent of our workers did not return from the holidays this year due to the development of inland cities," said Xiang Suming, the owner of Taizhou Zhonghe Shoe Co Ltd in Taizhou city, Zhejiang province. Xiang said 90 percent of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the city could fail to finish overseas orders because they cannot find enough workers. Zhang Wenhua, the owner of Jiangsu Longda Mechanical Equipment Co Ltd in Jiangsu province, is also struggling to find enough workers. "I've raised my workers' monthly incomes by 20 percent and will increase them by another 10 percent in October," Zhang said. But despite the rising salaries, only about half of his workforce had returned by Thursday. According to statistics released by the transportation department in Shanghai, the number of migrant workers returning to the city from Sichuan and Anhui provinces fell this week by 10,000 a day compared to last year. While small companies are struggling to find workers in coastal cities, Quanzhou in Fujian province, which is the base for many brand-name businesses, is enticing workers through its improved working conditions. "We haven't seen much of a labor shortage here yet," said Chen Lanbo, a manager at Huatai Technology, a sound system producer in Quanzhou. "At least 70 percent of our employees have returned to their posts and more are expected after the Lantern Festival."

To: GST who wrote (109613)	2/18/2011 9:49:25 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From what I have been reading this week about post holiday is that the coastal regions have really been gutted. 140 million migrant workers have been away from home, and they are shifting home in droves, so seems production is more decentralized. This will raise transportation costs. Secondly wages have been raised on the order of at least 25% everywhere, and even higher in the coastal areas. The key now is to pass these on to export prices. If these prices aren't taken then large parts of Chinese labor intensive export biz will quickly fail. This seems to be happening in two waves, now, and waiting on export orders at the new prices. news.xinhuanet.com