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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnathan C. Doe who wrote (23235)	11/13/1997 1:26:00 PM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

<<As the outlook assumptions get revised, I think you will see Ascend at a price of $12 with a P/E of 20.>>> The price revisions for '98 have already occured. Most analysts have cut from $1.70 - $1.80 range to $1.20 ish. Ashby's already stated that they will hit estimates of $1.15 - $1.20. ASND @ $12 is a PE of 10!!!! You are suggesting earnings of .60 per share next year. You have to admit, this is somewhat absurd when ASND has also stated 5-10% sequential quarterly revenue growth for the next two quarters and 10% growth the back half of the year. It's far more likey that ASND will earn $1.50 in '98 with new contracts from MCI / UUNET, NTT, AT&T, Earthlink etc. etc. Larry

To: Johnathan C. Doe who wrote (23235)	11/13/1997 2:41:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

>>>When I say Ascend at a P/E of 8, understand that we are talking about a forward-looking P/E using the old assumptions that the forward P/E seems to be using.<<< Please explain these "old assumptions"; and I'm also interested in seeing your actual calculations/analysis for why you think ASND is going to hit 12 (LOL!) or ever carry a single-digit p/e? We've had lots of people propose ridiculous numbers...do yours have any analysis to back them up? Do tell. Style Pts.

To: Johnathan C. Doe who wrote (23235)	11/13/1997 3:41:00 PM
From: Gary Korn	Respond to of 61433

As the outlook assumptions get revised, I think you will see Ascend at a price of $12 with a P/E of 20. Do you realize you are saying that ASND will have earnings of 60cents/share/year ($12 divided by .6 = 20). You would have to go back to 1Q94 for annualized earnings this low. 60cents/share is 15cents/share/quarter. In its hellacious 3Q97, ASND had earnings of 20cents/share with a backlog of close to $300MM. Even the short term cash and cash equivalents held by ASND could generate a substantial portion of earnings you are predicting. You can't mean this. Can you? Gary Korn