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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (10947)	11/13/1997 2:32:00 PM
From: derek cao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, here is the graph of 30yr bond rate: dbc.com bull view: low inflation lead to low rate bear view: global economy are cooling you be the judge. regards derek

To: Gottfried who wrote (10947)	11/13/1997 3:52:00 PM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

Sorry about the old hearing, but it was that same phrase that got me. As you know I'm all for differences of opinion and was vocal in my support of bear posts because I felt they had and have a great deal to add. in fact I had gotten tired of the mindless jingoism in the face of obvious bad news, that flourished on the thread. but it is just irrisposible to put forward as an accepted fact, something that is as of yet pure conjecture. Now that is not to say that everything is rosey out there in amat land... if it was I would not have sold when I did... my argument is only that the risk is now in the price... this is not a fact... it is an opinion that I am betting heavily on... i restate... i read all the posts on this thread. I have read the KLAC earnings report, and I have yet to hear of a pushout, or indeed a single projection of slower growth from amat or any other large semi equipment manu... and I would add that there are bound to be some... there are strugglers in boom times... but my point is that this risk is now adequetly reflected in the price.

To: Gottfried who wrote (10947)	11/13/1997 5:27:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and Akidron, Point taken, I will endeavor to clarify supposition earlier in my posts even though I do state "My opinion only" as a closing statement. I would never want to inadvertantly mislead or mis-inform any investor. I live/work in this industry and have pretty much seen the scenarios' played out many times over the years. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I have seen history repeat itself, and follow the same path to the same conclusion so many times, that I tend to project the future based on events of the past. I would like to think that my attempts to "enlighten/inform" are alternative ways to see reality from a different angle and to lend a full perspective view of the situations from all sides other than by a 1 sided short term view that can blindside the unwary/uninformed. If nothing else, I like to think that I offer the mental stimulation for investors to make good decisions armed with alternative information earlier than the press or analysts release it after the fact. Another cliche': Forewarned is Forearmed. Just my opinion, BB