To: axial who wrote (37791 ) 4/3/2011 4:39:05 PM From: axial Respond to of 46821 [4] The accepted fact that MALICIOUS algorithms (as opposed to mistakes) can propagate effects widely and nearly instantaneously. ---Robots Rattle Data Guru A savvy market watcher has detected some suspicious -- and very, very fast -- automated-trading activity in March. Flash Crash 2?"New robotic-trading strategies are attempting to hack futures and equities markets -- again. The suspicious activity appears unconnected to the October cyberattack on Nasdaq OMX Group (ticker: NDAQ) now being investigated by the National Security Agency. But there seems to be a new team of trading 'bots abroad -- and yes, they're distorting prices. The suspect algorithms first appeared March 2, Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex, a Winnetka, Ill., data firm, tells Barron's. When rapid-fire automated-trading systems torched the indexes in the infamous May 6, 2010, "flash crash," Hunsader was the first to notice that the Consolidated Quote System (CQS) was running 35 seconds late... ... Automated systems are programmed by mathematicians whose ultra-short-term strategies have radically altered markets. And while there have been flash-crash fixes, they haven't stopped the new invaders, which are orders of magnitude faster... "... Another algorithm, says Hunsader, changes order sizes at the top of the order book in about 20 to 40 stocks on Nasdaq for a few milliseconds several times a day. Each stock is traded anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 times a second, double to quadruple the norm. The activity floods the quote system with trade data, but so far seems to cause no harm . On March 16, the CQS saw peak-volume traffic hit warp speed: a record 390,000 messages per second for all stock symbols between 11:01 a.m. and 11:02 a.m. (A year ago, such volume would have swamped the CQS, as peak capacity was 200,000 messages a second.) At 11:01:48 a.m. -- the peak of the weird trading -- 10.5% of the quotes on CQS were locked or crossed, meaning that the bid exceeded the offer. The next second, it was 13%. Usually, about 3% of trades are crossed. Hunsader wonders why the exchanges are not saying that they are worried. This is all too similar to what happened during the 2010 flash crash, causing the delay that went unnoticed by regulators and market experts -- despite all their monitoring equipment. Meanwhile, CQS has been upgraded to handle 750,000 messages a second; by July, total capacity will be one million messages per second... What helps legit trading will also help fast hackers ." online.barrons.com Jim