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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	3/7/2011 9:12:01 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

According to local news reports, an unnamed Finance Ministry official was quoted as saying Finance Minister Guido Mantega and central bank President Alexandre Tombini have been discussing possible measures, including another IOF increase, some sort of lockup period for foreign inflows and SWF intervention. thestreet.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	3/22/2011 2:49:20 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2504

Petrobras Can ‘Easily’ Double Reserves in Five Years, CEO Gabrielli Says Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, can “easily” double its 15 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in four to five years, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said. Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro-based company is known, needs $17 billion in financing over a five-year period if oil is at $80 a barrel, Gabrielli said today at an energy event in Rio de Janeiro. Crude oil for April delivery in New York rose as high as $102.67 a barrel early today. “We have 10 billion to 16 billion barrels already discovered that can become proven reserves when we declare commerciality,” Gabrielli said. Petrobras, which plans to revise its investment plan this year to include the development of new reserves it bought from the government as part of a $70 billion share sale, aims to produce 2.1 million barrels a day in Brazil in 2011, up from an average of 2 million barrels in 2010, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa said Feb. 25. Petrobras rose 36 centavos, or 1.8 percent, to 28.49 reais at 9:41 a.m. in Sao Paulo trading.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	4/4/2011 3:15:22 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Brazil’s Credit Rating Upgraded As It Becomes ‘The Country Of Now’ Brazil’s stellar economic performance, making it one of the most dynamic BRIC-emerging market (EM) economies, has led to a credit upgrade by Fitch, which raised its issuer default rating for Brazil one notch to BBB. The credit rating agency cited a smooth power handoff from Lula to Dilma Rousseff, sustainable potential growth rate, and an improving medium-term fiscal position, adding to the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, as reasons for the recent upgrade, while it revised its rating outlook to stable from positive. Recent ratings news had been dominated by deteriorating finances in Europe, as Portugal’s political crisis has sparked fears of contagion among the PIIGS and fueled the possibility of a further EU-IMF bailout. Monday, though, saw a Fitch recognizing the strength of the Brazilian economy and deciding to up its credit rating by one notch to BBB. The real strengthened against the dollar on Monday, with the USD/BRL exchange falling 0.52% to 1.6152 by 1:23 PM in New York. (Read Portugal’s Sovereigns Downgraded, Spanish Banks Guillotined). Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart Click here to download Flash Player nowA chart of the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ). Fitch’s Latin American sovereign ratings team noted that they had upgraded their estimate for the potential growth rate of the Brazilian economy to 4% to 5%; Brazil’s economy grew at an impressive 7.5% in 2010, forcing it to reckon with the possibility of overheating and massive inflation. Still, with a diverse economy and robust demand dynamics, Brazil is poised to continue growing and exert its international influence. Already Petrobras is one of the largest players in the oil game, especially in offshore drilling, and Vale is among the top three largest global miners by market cap; AmBev, Latin America’s largest brewery, forms a large part of international powerhouse Anheuser-Busch InBev, which’s organization is dominated by Brazilian executives. (Read Brazil’s Funding Needs Provide Private Equity Opportunity). Dilma Rousseff, hand-picked successor of the massively popular former president Lula Da Silva, has inherited a growing economy plagued by massive fiscal spending and massive capital inflows (Dilma is ranked #16 in Forbes’ World’s Most Powerful People list). While currency appreciation was cutting into exporters’ capacity, mounting inflation was eating into real wages. Dilma has begun a series of macro prudential measures to control inflation, including “spending cuts in 2011 and a modest increase in the minimum wage as well as a steady reduction in the Treasury’s loans to the BNDES (a national development bank)” which according to Fitch are “supportive of a gradual improvement in the overall fiscal stance.” (Read Brazil’s Currency Pickle: Mounting Inflation And Real Appreciation). Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, has received massive capital inflows, allowing the country to build up a strong external liquidity position which has increased its capacity for “shock-absorption.” Having built up international reserves of about $300 billion, Fitch notes that Brazil’s capacity to deal with current account deficits has increased. (Read March Portfolio Flows For BRIC Markets). Another key consideration in the upgrade was the active role played by the Brazilian Treasury in managing the nation’s massive domestic debt, as well as having secured “considerable resources for external debt amortizations in the coming years, which reduces the country’s vulnerability to volatility in international capital markets.” While the risk of a hard landing could result from “sharp rise in public debt burden or the crystallization of significant contingent liabilities from the financial sector,” Brazil appears to be steadily marching on its path to shed the “country of the future” title to become the “country of now.” (Read Petrobras To Focus On Brazilian Production To Outstrip Exxon Atop Oil Markets, CFO Says). blogs.forbes.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	4/15/2011 3:28:02 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Brazil ambassador says the U.S. hasn't caused Brazil's inflation Although the so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa called on the U.S. today to be cautious about policies stoking inflation in developing countries, Brazil's Ambassador to the United States Mauro Vieira said his country's inflation is home-grown. In an interview following a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Vieira said his "government is very worried" about inflation because "poorer people have to pay a high price." But he said Brazil's inflation is "a result of spending by the government (of Brazil) on creating jobs and social policy." To avert an economic slowdown during the financial crisis, Vieira said, Brazil's government responded quickly with aggressive stimulus spending and also tax reductions. BRIC countries, and particularly China, have blamed rising inflation in emerging countries on the Federal Reserve's policy of pouring billions of dollars into the global economy, a policy the Federal Reserve has undertaken to create jobs in the U.S. China has argued that an excessive amount of money in the system is finding its way into commodities, and making everything from fuel to food expensive in developing countries. The five BRIC countries, meeting in China, issued a joint statement today calling for more attention to the risks they face from flows of money from developed countries such as the U.S. The statement said sharp increases in commodity prices pose risks for the ongoing recovery of the world economy. Vieira said that Brazil wants to bring its inflation to 4.5 percent after reaching 6 percent last year. This year he said inflation is likely to range from 5.5 percent to 6 percent. He commended President Barak Obama for recent trade talks in Brazil and the president's "recognition of Brazil as a truly global leader and partner of the U.S." He also said Brazil and Chicago would forge business relationships with the launch of U.S/Brazil Midwest Business Council in Chicago today. Vieira said he sees some of the greatest opportunities in trade coming from the manufacturing sector. Posted at 06:32:55 PM in Bonds, commodities and gold, Current Affairs, Economy

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	4/18/2011 12:00:03 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Itáu beats Bradesco for Carrefour stake “Retail” and “credit” are some of the most lucrative words in Brazilian business nowadays. No wonder then that Itaú Unibanco’s acquisition of a 49 per cent stake in the local credit arm of French retailer Carrefour this week was widely applauded by the market. Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s biggest non-government lender, was one of the first to recognize the potential of providing in-store credit services for some of Brazil’s biggest retailers. Its competitors have been hot on its heels since. Bradesco, Itaú’s long-time rival, acquired Banco Ibi, the financial arm of clothing retailer C&A in June 2009 and would have also bought the stake in Carrefour given half the chance. Bradesco had long been considered the favourite to win the Carrefour bidding war but towards the end of the negotiations, Chief Executive Mr Trabuco Cappi voiced some caution in an interview with the Financial Times. When asked if he thought Bradesco’s bid would be successful in the face of a rival bid from Itaú, Trabuco Cappi said: “Do you remember the play Shakespeare wrote, Julius Caesar? … This could be like when Brutus murdered Julius Caesar. And in the end Caeser was murdered, by an Itaú bid of 725m reals ($459m) with a price to 2010 earnings ratio of 11.6. The cut-throat nature of the battle for a stake in a relatively small financial group says a lot about the industry and the tensions between the major players. Firstly, Brazil’s banking sector is highly consolidated and there are now very few acquisition opportunities left. Any bank will jump at the chance to accelerate their organic growth. Secondly, providing retail credit services, typically through an in-store credit card, can also be a less risky way of lending. By tapping into an established customer base, the bank already knows who it is lending to, their patterns of behaviour and, most importantly, how likely they are to pay their debts. Finally, retail credit also holds a special importance for Itáu. Bradesco has far more branches than Itáu and doesn’t typically have a strong presence in the country’s poorer areas. As such, these big supermarkets allow Itaú to get access to the country’s lower-income classes without having to actually open up branches in the slums like Bradesco has done. blogs.ft.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (163)	4/19/2011 2:47:30 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

The perceived risk by investors in Brazil overall has never been so low compared to the U.S., considered a benchmark in financial security. Last week, the difference between the risk levels of the two countries reached their lowest level in history: 0.60 percentage point. On Monday afternoon, was at 0.62 percentage point. These figures were extracted from the negotiations with a financial derivative widely traded in the market, called CDS (Credit Default Swap, in English). This paper is a type of insurance sold to investors who want to protect themselves from a possible default. If someone wants to buy Brazilian government bonds and at the same time, protect yourself, using the CDS. On Monday, he paid 1.1% per year in U.S. dollars for this purpose. To protect against potential problems in the U.S., the rate was 0.48% per annum. The CDS market moves trillions of dollars around the world and Brazil is one of the most traded.