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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (10960)	11/13/1997 5:20:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think maybe you misunderstood my comment. it was very general. it is however indisputable that the stock is off about 50% from its high... a much greater decline than that of the S&P or any other indice including the SOX in this period... the reasons are manyfold but include that its (huge) trading volume makes it very volatile, there were a host of expectations built in the stock and little room for bad news, it had momentum, and perhaps most importantly it is viewed as a leading indicator of the whole tech capital good sector and therefore the market, because capital expenditure is often the first to go when interest rates rise (SEA) and margins decline. What I was trying to point out was that this movement relative to the S&P seems to have bottomed and the stocks internal correction in the face of industry specific bad news is perhaps over (i think this correction has been overdone). This is evidenced by the fact that for the past couple of days it has traded with the S&P. Therefore, I am further theorizing that the miro correction phase, that caused it to decline faster than the S&P is now over. That is not to say that the stock has bottomed, because I am unsure that the market as a whole has bottomed. It is obviously very nervous right now. However there are now events that will determine the micro fundementals and could cause the stock to outpace the S&P to the positive. it is obvious from my posts that I am bullish about the quarter and forward earnings, so would say that so long as there is no massive market event that pulls down all large cap capital stocks, amat will recover quickly and could see the stock trading at or near new highs this year. there are others on this thread that disagree, they believe that the comming events will be less favorable, and that the company will warn or confirm slowing growth. i doubt it for reasons i have previously posted, but obviously they could be right, for it is diversity of opinion that makes a market a market. all of that said i am very much trader that looks at the macro, and then targets micro events that will propel certain stocks. right now I am long on only three IFMXE (@5), AMAT (@35), & MOFN (@3)... I plan also to pick up SEG either tomorrow on another hopeless Friday or at least soon. I really only buy stocks tha have have micro overreaction, within the market, at times I feel the market is decently priced. for real tech analysis GM and Paul V are the guys. I don't even pretend.