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Non-Tech : LIFEWAY FOODS (LWAY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Boyd Spencer who wrote (122)11/13/1997 10:42:00 PM
From: mark cox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 352
 
Hi Boyd
I have tried to order other Lifeway products as well but couldn't thru the local health food store. Apparently kefir is the only product we can get thru them. The cheeses and other products are more than likely sold only to the bigger grocery stores. Maybe with the new facility we will be able to get some different products but it's probably up to the distributor.
I just noticed that the 10Q is out. I breezed thru it quickly to see if anything stuck out but there wasn't anything I saw so I will look at it in depth probably tomorrow. You can find it at the Freeedgar website.

I'm sure everyone knows about LWAY and GGEN working together to produce the antibody kefir products. GGEN released their 10Q and press release. I will copy the part that has to do with these products from the press release. Dr. Hoerr is the CEO of GGEN.

Dr. Hoerr continued, ''We are very encouraged with the progress in the development of our nutritional products program. Our Lifeway collaboration has already yielded new products, one of which we anticipate will be introduced in the fourth quarter. This is an important first step towards creating a significant presence in the emerging healthcare and consumer nutritional product industries.''

I'll be back after I look at the 10Q.

Mark



To: Boyd Spencer who wrote (122)11/14/1997 2:10:00 AM
From: Steve Cox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 352
 
ATTENTION - LWAY has just re-entered Earth's atmosphere.

The P/E60 a little while back may be warranted in late 1998 or 1999, but the present multiple of 35 is more realistic. You be the judge:
Earnings % Change
1993 .03 0%
1994 .06 +100%
1995 .12 +100%
1996 .16 +33%
1997(e) .21(e) +31%

With 3Q97 results out - TTM(.19)(P/E35) = $6.65. Think we'll just mellow out here for a while.
Looking ahead to4Q97 with the impact of more stores shelving kefir products and plant expansion I'm estimating +25% in revenues over 4Q96 ($1.6M vs $1.3M). 3Q97 net profit was only 10.4%. (ONLY!). This is below LWAY's normal 12-14%, but plant expansion must have it's expenses and the profits will return due to automation soon - so 11% for 4Q97 is not unreasonable. Therefore earnings may come in at $.04 (+100% vs 4Q96) making 1997 = $.21. P/E35 = $7.35 share price.

Over the years this has been the revenue story: *Remember in 1996 and three quarters of 1997 the old plant was about maxed out and the new stores Dierberg, Wild Oats and Whole Foods were not in the picture.

REV ($M) % Change

1993 3.0
1994 3.5 +17%
1995 4.5 +22%
* 1996 5.3 +18%
* 1997(e) 6.1(e) +15%

It's unfortunate investors are in at $9-$11 and now have paper losses of 30-40%. Many will want to sell when LWAY gets back to these prices and never look at the stock again. By end of 1Q98 I believe this price will be back - then consecutive quarters will really start to get exciting. Patience everyone - the snowball is starting to roll. It starts slow then builds up speed.

Steve