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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7820)	11/13/1997 5:46:00 PM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Asia crisis risks regional depression-fund adviser biz.yahoo.com <<< ''China is not 1.2 billion consumers, it is 1.2 billion producers. >>> Interesting comments. John

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7820)	11/13/1997 5:52:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohan: whenever we hear Greenspan speak the market rises to his words, in patriotic support of the feds. I remember Joan timing her short to one of his speeches. CNBC disclosed that 20% of global bank debt is bad. Ugly truths are hidden, and brokerages are desperately trying to dump stock as the extent of the damage becomes clearer. SO the new question is, who's going to pay for the back orders of capital equipment? Who's going to loan them the money? We haven't seen the bottom until we see losses show up on the balance sheets of some of the techs.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7820)	11/13/1997 6:54:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Respond to of 18056

Don't underestimate the willingness of the institutions to collectively try to push up lots of stock at once. All sound and fury. Bearded One's 10 second tech analysis: Over 100 billion of inflows in the last 5 months with no net movement in the DJII. That's gotta count for something. Bearded One's 10 second fundamental analysis: Watch Asia. Watch the banks.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7820)	11/13/1997 8:00:00 PM
From: Jumper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohan...Mohan...Mohan It was tough to short the top; it was filled with pain, debate, and a fireside test of ones resolve. ...and it seems equaly difficult to pick the bottom. :o) exchange2000.com

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7820)	11/13/1997 8:42:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohan, today's action in INTC was not particularly good. I thin that if you wait until sometime tomorrow arounf\d 2:30 to 3:00 you'll have a better deal. I doubt the Japanese are going to lower thei income taxes, they are going to liquify monetarily before they lax fiscally. They are scared of a wave of consumerism which will change for good their current endemic net exporter status. A tax cut, they fear, may direct all these fund into importing goods, and while they give the world lip service that they are doing their damnest to open their market, it is my opinion that they are lying through their teeth. I think they will pay the price and we will see the Nikkei under 14,000 in the not too distant future. If they lowerr the their taxes, it would be just an iota to try and avert an immediate collapse of the Nikei, but the fiscal tightness, is in my opinion, sacrosanct. Now comes the real puting my head on the copping block. Because I do not think that they will come up with a real fiscal stimulus to their economy, by the time trading is over in Japan, the Nikkei will flutter and by the time we close yesterday, we will have visited sub 7400 territory, and probably stay there, unless the bear chivken out and cover for the weekend. The bears have become "gutless" recently and cover positions on any inkling of a mediocre rally. But then, after the goring they have been delt for the last few years, it is not difficult to understand. That is one of the reason that I do not expect a precipitous decline before the end of this year and that I think most of the damage will be done in late January and in February. Zeev