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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (5931)	11/13/1997 7:11:00 PM
From: mike smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

If you think AOL will fall to the 40's sometime in the future, but your not sure when, then buy long term puts. If you think it will fall to the 40's in the short term, try short term puts. Granted, you can make more with the short term puts, but keep in mind, the puts may expire worthless if you don't unload them in time, therefore you've increased your risk. If you give yourself more time, you may be compromising your potential profit in the short run, but you have also purchased a little safety (if you can ever call option playing safe). When you give yourself more time, you do not get pressured by temporary bounces, you can hold on to your puts until you have realized your target price. Good Luck to all...

To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (5931)	11/13/1997 9:26:00 PM
From: Yikes	Respond to of 13594

AOL Price Movement Next Week Brent asked for it, so I'll contribute. First let me present my Nov options analysis. This is actually the output of a program I wrote: 97-11-13 AOL Nov 68 1/2 -2 3/16 OI/ADV = 3.4% ========== +min% Max% Prob -Prob Max% min% Calls Puts Cover$ Strike$ Remarks 0.2 0.2 0.2 86.5 99.8 63.4 1027 78 30.47 95.00 1.6 4.3 2.6 82.9 95.7 60.7 5789 540 18.98 90.00 3.9 17.3 6.9 69.7 82.7 50.0 13.15 86.50 - 50% min 4.9 22.8 8.7 64.1 77.2 45.4 5525 1241 10.65 85.00 10.2 42.6 17.9 45.2 57.4 30.9 3908 2017 5.70 80.00 14.7 50.0 24.9 40.3 50.0 28.1 5.16 78.63 m Max eq 20.6 59.6 33.9 33.9 40.4 24.4 4.45 76.84 p Prob eq 26.7 69.4 43.2 27.3 30.6 20.6 7037 6283 3.72 75.00 @ min Cover 32.0 93.2 53.0 3.6 6.8 2.1 611 2010 8.39 70.00 33.4 95.1 55.0 2.7 4.9 1.6 10.19 68.50 <--- 36.6 99.5 59.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 197 1763 14.38 65.00 Analysis to follow in the next post...

To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (5931)	11/13/1997 9:40:00 PM
From: Yikes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

AOL Price Movement Next Week (Part 2) The "Cover$" column calculates the collective cover cost to option writers should they choose to cover instead of being called. The minimum collective cost is $75 per AOL share at $3.72M. Currently at $68 1/2, the cost is $10.19M. I believe the stock will take an upturn tomorrow or early next week to almost $75, then perhaps a bit higher riding the coat tail of tech stocks (COMDEX will put a good light on tech stocks and take them higher). But after next week, I expect another push to $85+. I am going to buy some Jan 85c tomorrow in preparation to short AOL again when it reaches 80's. Yikes