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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10171)3/1/2011 8:40:37 PM
From: Eric  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16955
 
Jacob,

I like your thesis except wind does have it's place.

The wild card is the Arab world and oil prices. I've held back on buying solar the last few days but am bullish long term as you are. More and more places are at grid parity in the world every day. A large number of our Republican friends just don't want renewables. Just drill baby drill...

But I'm beginning to think the big mover will be the government of China. It's going to happen. They can't get enough energy for the future.

Remaining patient.

NG is interesting. We could be close to a bottom if the drilling tapers off. Watching the rig count.



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10171)3/2/2011 7:46:28 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16955
 
solar gross margins for 2010:

46% FSLR
33% YGE
31% TSL
29% JKS
23% SPWRA
22% JASO
20% LDK estimate; 4Q not reported
17% STP latest guidance; 4Q not reported
15% CSIQ estimate

I'm still using gross margin as my yardstick for competitiveness. FSLR remains far ahead of the rest. I'll be willing to look at any solar or component maker who can get to 30%. JKS is close to being investment-grade.

It's interesting, that the 3 with the lowest margins, are also the three who haven't reported full-year 2010 results yet. A confirmation of inefficient management.