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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (41561)	3/1/2011 10:19:51 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Yes, I like that one, and I have mentioned it here before. I'm buying or trying to buy or have bought all the Australian companies that I have found that have e&p investments in USA or Canada as regards Bakken and/or Niobrara shale. As for SDCJF.pk (or SEA on the Australian exchange), I've focused on that one and have been buying in small amounts. But in making purchase after purchase after purchase after purchase, it's now among my top holdings. As I said in an earlier post about these stocks, I believe there are some shale oil stocks that if bought now and held (not that I can hold on), will enable some young guy (not me) with courage (not really me again) to get rich. SDCJF.pk could be one such stock. It's too bad it hasn't been mentioned/discussed on SI by those who claim some expertise in the oil bidness or in following oil stocks or in reporting on oil stocks or the oil business. However, that lack of discussion gives the opportunity to buy in advance of the herd. (Of course publicity/popularity doesn't mean the company will necessarily turn out to be a winning investment.) Repeating my opinion, we have the Eagle Ford Texas play that's now well known. For 2011 we have the Bakken (USA/Saskatchewan Bakken) where there's a lot of acreage being acquired, drilling go on, media reporting. That attention will shift to Niobrara in 2011/2012. Then that will then be followed by the Alberta Bakken and the Alberta Cardium. (Somewhere in there will be the North Sea, and maybe companies involved with horizontal drilling in Europe. Africa too somewhere.) All just my opinion. Whether any of the companies here are value stocks or just speculations, I leave it to each individual to determine. Again, I use p/e for megacaps, but a variety of other methods for the small e&p companies that show no earnings now or in the foreseeable future (e.g. I'm using comparable acreage prices, flowing barrels of production, nav.). Also, it should be said, I'm sometimes just going on history of management or company p.r./presentations (risky with some of these Canadian .v companies). Anyway, fwiw, in past couple of days I added to positions in REXX, MMR, ESTE, OAS, SDCJF (SDCJF with money from sale of some SSN), CSCTF.pk, GSFVF (perhaps the Bakken equivalent to "pick&shovel supplier to miners"), BEXP, HES(some are not value buys at current high price!), SYRG, TPLM, SROE, PXL.v (these last two still very undervalued imo)and TOL.v. (TOL's one of my picks for the Alberta Cardium. Also has land in Bakken. I like it for 2012-2013). Whew! Lol -- can you guys keep up? Uh, would you even want to? Because actually, if I'm not real careful (and I'm generally old and slow and not careful), it's very possible I could get my head handed to me by coming into some of these stocks now when prices are already so high. We shall see.

To: E_K_S who wrote (41561)	3/2/2011 10:47:18 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

part of being a value investor is taking a contrarian approach. I am happy that these e&p plays are running but i think the real value is in those unloved chinese companies with accounting issues? i took a loss on my gm shares to add to my losing position in watg and started a new position in chinese valve company cvvt.added about 1% to each in the taxable account. I still think the industrial revolution in china has a ways to go, and these seem like industrial infrastructure plays to me selling at bargain p/e ratios now. hopefully some will work out over the next decade or so. my chinese plays now include: gfre, melco international, watg, cvvt, cccl, khdhf.

To: E_K_S who wrote (41561)	4/7/2011 3:45:25 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78751

Re: Sundance Energy Australia Limited (SDCJF.PK) Doubled up on my 3/1/2011 buy. Company out with a new presentation (4/4/2011) sundanceenergy.com.au Page -3- of presentation "...Development of our Bakken/Three Forks and Niobrara shale acreage (combined ~24,000 acres) could result in an enterprise value of >$700,000,000 and daily production (net of royalties) >5,000 boepd in 2-4 years..." That translates to $2.50/share . . . . 150% higher than the current price $0.975/share. Page-19- of presentation Attractive Fundamentals for Price Appreciation o Well positioned to capitalize on strong oil prices through acreage position in top U.S. oil shale resource plays (~67,000 US oil shale acres) o 16.2 mboe of oily reserves in the Williston Basin targeting the Bakken and Three Forks oil shales (~9,000 acre position) with aggressive development plan to convert reserves to cash flow o Exploitation of the Niobrara oil shale (~15,000 acre position) underway with reserve potential not priced into current share price o Significant portfolio of maturing oil shale prospects (~43,000 acre position) and track record of profitable early entry into top US onshore shale plays EKS