Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (24891)	3/2/2011 1:41:50 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 25522

Foundry (fabless sector) looks good NAND looks good (stable pricing ; SNDK upward revision) DRAM looks weak but stabilizing slowly CPU/Server looks OK Based on this SIA data should not be too disapointing and Hill will update tomorrow

To: etchmeister who wrote (24891)	3/11/2011 10:46:34 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Analyst: January IC sales "shocking" Chips: J.P. Morgan Turns Bullish; Upgrades TXN, XLNX, ONNN (No doubt in my mind - this data was sold way in advance to WS analysts; I noticed there was only one press release when the data was published; click on the link - might be worth plotting the data) March 8, 2011 - It's not fair to call one month a "trend," but preliminary data for January IC sales shows astonishing strength that may cause everyone to already rethink their full-year predictions, says one analyst. WSTS data shows January 2011 IC sales were $21.4B, up 16% from a year ago and -4.5% from December -- that's the smallest calendar-year-opening decline in more than two decades, says IC Insights. For comparison, the average January vs. December sales decline spanning 1990-2010 has been -17% -- and more recently, the past decade (1999-2010) it's been -20%. Sequential comparisons also bode well, too. Historically there's been a slight decline sequentially in 1Q vs. 4Q IC sales (-1.2% average since 1984), with the biggest bump in 1986 (11%). But extrapolating January 2011's IC figures with the 1999-2010 average growth for February (3%) and March (28%) suggests IC sales for 1Q11 could top $71.6B, a 14% surge (and a 27-year high). Even a worst-case scenario using the historically poorest sequential IC growth rates for February (-7%) and March (19%) translate to slight growth in 1Q11 (3%). And adding the latest macroeconomic data -- US unemployment falling to 8.9%, US factory orders climbing 3.1% in January (a >4-year high), and rising global purchasing managers index (PMI) -- "it appears the IC market is set for another year of solid growth," say the analysts. There's a wild card at play, though -- if the price of oil stays at or below ~$100/barrel, the IC market should see ~10% growth, predicts IC Insights. But if oil prices surge higher (and stay there), that puts more pressure on US consumers and businesses, and could dampen the global economic recovery. electroiq.com