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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (71418)	3/2/2011 5:46:51 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217917

<<the dumbazz had 18 mistresses>> If you figure the shortage of women with the 1 child policy and the high officials and rich guys grabbing 18 mistesses a piece then the chances of getting laid for the average chinaman has got to be pretty bad. :}

To: Snowshoe who wrote (71418)	3/3/2011 9:32:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217917

just in in-tray, per greed n fear Middle East newsflow remains a risk as does the related potential for a further oil and food-led commodity spike. It is not encouraging that the dollar has failed to rally on its usual safe haven status despite the geopolitical tremors. · There is a limit to how long the optimists on the American economy can ignore a further parabolic spike in the oil and food-led commodity complex. The risk remains that there is a growing potential for quanto easing to backfire on the Fed chairman if, aggravated by Middle East supply tensions, the oil price spikes further. · If Middle East tensions subside from here and oil corrects, then GREED & fear would still expect the S&P500’s upward momentum to continue for now with the main driver for continuing cyclical optimism on America being driven by the capex story, helped by the super attractive 100% tax deduction for depreciation allowed this year. · Still the medium term risk is that such policy buys demand from the future meaning that the corporate equipment cycle will be front-end loaded into 2011. The expectation here remains for an extended deleveraging cycle on the part of the consumer and a continuing dysfunctional US housing market. GREED & fear is certainly not convinced that employment is going to pick up in any meaningful sense as a result of tech-related capex spending or indeed replacement of machinery. · Japan should continue to outperform so long as the “out of emerging into developed” trade continues to prevail. While the Japanese rally since the beginning of November 2010 has as usual been led by foreign buying, the magnitude of buying by foreign investors has not been so great. · The bottom up story in Japan is very impressive in the sense that the corporate sector has succeeded in restoring its profit margin to pre-crisis levels despite the headwind of a still strong yen. This is important because in GREED & fear’s view the only prudent way for an equity investor to invest in Japan is on the assumption that the yen stays at its present level if not trends higher. One reason for this is because the Bank of Japan is not being as aggressive about its quanto easing as is the Fed. · The second positive about Japan is that the property market, or at least the Tokyo market, does appear to be in a genuine recovery cycle and one with growing momentum. This is important as property and land values still represent the collateral of the banking system. Here a willingness to embrace unorthodox central bank policy, in terms of the BoJ’s purchases of REITs, does appear to have helped. · GREED & fear hears that banks have now become more willing lenders to developers again as well as to property funds. As for supply concerns, there is limited supply in the prime Tokyo office area in the next three years. Rental yields also remain attractive relative to funding costs. · The Japanese condo market is also enjoying an improving trend, at least in the capital. The prime Tokyo condo market will also be helped by the new, albeit growing, practice of selling Japanese apartments to non-Japanese nationals living in the likes of Hong Kong and Singapore complete with the option of cheap yen financing. Such buyers are lured by cheap financing, estimated 5-6% rental yields and “cheap” prices relative to their own local markets. · GREED & fear would rather play the domestic story via property stocks than the banks which are more a macro play on continuing rising government bond yields or the insurance companies who are admittedly geared to a rising stock market but whose overall assets continue to shrink every year. Still if the property sector is rising, experience suggests that bank and insurance shares also go up as the market runs on the domestic theme. · The best long-term story in Japan remains exporters with a competitive edge in their segment who have displayed a track record in managing currency strength. If the yen actually starts declining, that is icing on the cake. But it may be that Japan can perform well without the yen declining, as last happened between 2003 and 2004. · The investment in Unicharm in the Japanese long-only portfolio will be removed and replaced by an investment in optical-sensor maker Keyence. The investment in Nintendo will also be replaced by an investment in Sumitomo Realty. While the investments in Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan will be increased by two percentage points each, with the money raised by removing the investment in Yahoo Japan. Please consider the environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.