To: Jerry Olson who wrote (28370 ) 11/13/1997 7:31:00 PM From: Jerry Olson Respond to of 58727
Hey Neal here's what I was talking about ina nutshell... Thursday November 13, 7:06 pm Eastern Time Japan govt says economy stalled but no recession TOKYO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Japan's economy has stalled and risks remain, but it has not fallen into recession, the government's Economic Planning Agency (EPA) said on Friday. ''Although the basic trend of a recovery centring on private demand has not been lost, corporate sentiment is showing severity and the economy has stalled,'' the agency said in its monthly economic report. Akira Furukawa, director of the EPA's economic research bureau, said, however, that the economy had not fallen into recession. He said he was neither pessimistic nor optimistic about the outlook for the economy but added he could not deny there were risks that the economy could worsen. ''The economy has been climbing stairs and ran too quickly prior to the (April 1) sales tax rise. It's now resting on a landing before the next flight. We can't say there's no chance that it might just sit down on the landing, but if things come together then it will start climbing again,'' he said. He added that a tumble in Tokyo stocks, with the benchmark Nikkei average falling about 15 percent since early September, had not had a significant effect on the real economy so far. Lowering its assessment of key indicators, the report said firms were cutting back inventories, resulting in strong fluctuations in production levels. It also said consumer spending was recovering from a rise in the sales tax earlier this year but the tempo was slow. Employment conditions were severe, with a slowdown in the last two months in payrolls growth at companies serving as a warning signal that the jobs situation might worsen, said Furukawa. He said employment in the construction industry was falling as Japan cut back on public works projects but that the retail sector was doing reasonably well. "It's a tug-of-war between the two," he said. The report also lowered its assessment of capital spending, stating that the recovery in capital spending was centred on manufacturers, instead of across industry as a whole. Business investment by companies had become more cautious, as seen in weaker machinery orders data, although Furukawa stressed that actual plans for spending had not changed. Domestic wholesale prices were also somewhat weak, reflecting lower import prices for goods for the construction industry, he said. Furukawa said three key elements were important for the economy to return to a recovery track -- a pickup in consumer spending, a pickup in payrolls, and progress by firms in inventory adjustments. He said surging exports were a key factor but not the only factor supporting the economy, stressing that capital spending plans were firm and that the car industry had made significant progress in cutting back inventories. Regarding the stock market, he said recent declines had not yet had an effect on the economy through either individuals or equity financing by firms. But he added that the EPA would watch carefully to see whether small and medium-sized firms would be affected by restrained lending by banks that might be worried about taking on more credit risk. Related News Categories: US Market News, currency, international Copyright c 1997 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon Important Disclaimers and Legal Information