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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51292)3/2/2011 10:56:45 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95383
 
From Briefing.com: 4:30 pm : Stocks settled with narrow to modest gains after spending the session bouncing around under the beguile of oil, which pushed to a new two-year closing high amid ongoing geopolitical concerns related to the Middle East and North Africa.

Gradual buying helped stocks head higher in the first couple of hours of trade, but the tone deteriorated as oil attracted renewed interest. Traders had a muted response to bullish inventory data, but reports surfaced that Libyan fighter jets fired on the oil terminal city of Masra El Brega propeled prices in the continuous contract as high as $102.37 per barrel. They settled just off of that mark.

Oil's ability to hold its gain into the close of pit trade and even afterward in electronic trade undermined strength in the stock market, which had traded to afternoon highs only an hour before the close. Stocks drifted downward during the last leg of trade for a rather underwhelming finish.

Despite that, semiconductor stocks scored a 1.4% gain after analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the space. Retailers were relatively strong ahead of their monthly same-store results -- they collectively climbed 0.6%.

More stiff selling sent the Amex Airline Index down 0.9%, which comes on top of its 3.0% loss in the prior session. Higher oil prices remain the primary culprit.

Corporate news was of little concern to the overall market, but a stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change attracted attention. The report indicated that private payrolls increased in February by 217,000, which is considerably greater than the increase of 163,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Although the positive ADP Change portends well for the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke reminded the House of Representatives during his semi-annual monetary policy testimony that unemployment remains stubbornly high.

That said, the Fed's latest Beige Book states that wage pressures remain steady, even though overall economic activity improved across the various Fed districts.

Despite an improving picture of economic activity and varied gains by stocks, precious metals continued to attract safety seekers. In turn, gold gained 0.6% to close pit trade at $1437.70 per ounce. Along the way it set a new all-time high of $1441.00 per ounce. Silver advanced 1.0% to finish at $34.82 per ounce after it notched a fresh 30-year high at $34.97.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.5%), Tech (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%), Materials (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Financial (-0.7%)DJ30 +8.78 NASDAQ +10.66 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1454/1.99 bln/1159 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/1.02 bln/1078

1:40PM Apple confirms launch of iPad 2 (AAPL) 351.60 +2.34 : Co confirms its introduced iPad 2. iPad 2 features an entirely new design that is 33 percent thinner and up to 15 percent lighter than the original iPad, while maintaining the same stunning 9.7-inch LED-backlit LCD screen. iPad 2 features Apple's new dual-core A5 processor for blazing fast performance and stunning graphics and now includes two cameras, a front-facing VGA camera for FaceTime and Photo Booth, and a rear-facing camera that captures 720p HD video, bringing the innovative FaceTime feature to iPad users for the first time. Though it is thinner, lighter, faster and packed with new features, iPad 2 still delivers up to 10 hours of battery life that users have come to expect. iPad 2 is available in black or white, features models that run on AT&T's (T) and Verizon's (VZ) 3G networks, and introduces the innovative iPad 2 Smart Cover in a range of vibrant polyurethane and rich leather colors.

10:49AM Semiconductor Hldrs ETF continues to provide leadership, notches new session high (SMH) 36.13 +0.93 : Noted the relative strength in earlier updates with the rally extended to 36.15 in recent trade. This week's high and the Mid-Feb gap bottom is at 36.26 with the top of the gap at 36.42. The multi-year high from Feb come into play at 36.67 -- ADI, ALTR, AMAT, AMD, AMKR, ATML, BRCM, INTC, KLAC, LLTC, LSI, MU, MXIM, NSM, NVLS, SNDK, TER, TXN, XLNX

American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) announced that it has received initial wind turbine electrical control system orders from China's Dongfang Turbine Co.

7:01AM Advanced Energy announces $20m follow-on order from centrotherm photovoltaics for solar cell applications (AEIS) 15.85 : Co announces a high-volume follow-on order from centrotherm photovoltaics AG, a leading technology and equipment provider for the photovoltaics sector. Advanced Energy, a preferred supplier to centrotherm photovoltaics since 2005, will provide the innovative PEII Series Power Supply platform to meet their rapidly growing demand for silicon crystalline solar manufacturing systems worldwide. Shipments are ongoing, and the $20M order extends through 2011.

08:14 am Oracle target raised to $36 at Stifel Nicolaus ahead of F3Q11 report: . Stifel Nicolaus raises their ORCL tgt to $36 from $34 ahead of the F3Q11 report on 3/24. Firm is estimating revenue and EPS of $8.66bn (up 33% ex currency, about 1% organic) and $0.49, in line with guidance for constant currency growth of 31-35% and $0.48-0.50 ($8.65bn/$0.49 consensus). Given the back-end weighted quarter, firm thinks currency tailwinds could be slightly ahead of guidance for 1%. While calling Oracle's quarters is fraught with risk and firm continues to hear caution on the overall macro environment and slow deal cycles, its general take is that the traditional Oracle business had a solid quarter as enterprises appear to be increasing investment in technology.



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51292)3/3/2011 12:29:33 AM
From: rsie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95383
 
" I think the potential upside for the SOX in this bull market is 550 (previous triple top), and the potential downside in the next bear market could take out the 2008 lows (168). "

thanks. i agree, but i am not going to fall in love with these stocks. i have some "funny money" to use and these stocks have lots of cash, have that cyclical nature.

i am a big picture guy here and when i think that things are going south, i am out.

is there an etf for semis when things go south?



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51292)3/3/2011 9:51:32 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95383
 
Hi Jacob,

Full disclosure - I am on the opposite side of your trade (being short KLIC).

I say that generally as I'm not long KLIC.

I think the peak cycle call is very premature and does no give the smart phone/tablet growth its proper respect for huge growth in units and infrastructure.

Today's IBD o page B3 has avery good write up on Nvls and Vsea two market share gainers within the SCE sector.

Key to this article describes both of these stocks as breaking out of first stage patterns Nvls in late November and Vsea in a "first stage cup and handle on Dec 3.

Generally both of these break outs only yielded a 10-15 % GAIN,THEN TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DECLINE TO ITS 10 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE.

Current prices now reflect a 40-50% runup from the first stage pattern breakout.

As previously pointed out Ter has just recently broken out to the high teens - a laggard vs front end equipment makers-in terms of being a late breakout but actually much stronger in percent up-so far.

My fav Cohu has been gravitating near its 50 day moving average - unfortinately greatly lagging as it has yet to break out of its first stage pattern - I call it in the low of the handle stage of a cup and handle pattern.

Cohu makes test handlers and does historically lag behin in breaking out relative to the front end equipment makers.

In past cycles, 40-50 % gains would be very anemic.

These companies have gone no where in 10 years and I expect much more than 40-50 percent from their breakouts.

Balance sheets margins and revenue growth all suggest the adverse times of the past have made these dogs and ownership has beeen accumulated into strong hands - imo.

The wave of new products combined with new and larger markets gives this sector a much longer growth cycle than many expect.The sectpr has in fact been beat up by negative analyst talk for a decade.

I do not think the run up is over until that analyst talk does a 180 - as I believe their BS to be a very credible fade trade.

I worry about your short position - but have great respect for your tenacity and market read.

Just my two cents and I think Cohu has been grossly overlooked and is a great buy here at 14.50 ish with the 200 sma - today at 14.08.

The CEO of Cohu is ultra conservative and injects sector strength doubt in every webcast.That coupled with the lag of back end business has depressed this stock's price -which I view as a very good value and play.

The chart is attached:

screencast.com

Bob