Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Byers who wrote (10977)	11/13/1997 8:40:00 PM
From: Andreas Wappelt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hmm, interesting comparison, but in a beauty pageant my vote doesn't alter the beauty of the girl. In the market my vote does have an influence on the price (ok, might be little, but it's there) Andy

To: Steve Byers who wrote (10977)	11/13/1997 8:44:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

and think there is reason for a slowdown... because the market participants have been saying so... period Steve, This is the same market which drove these stocks to insanely cheap valuations in '96, only to see them valut upward 5-6 fold only one year later. The market "experts", for lack of a better word, have seemingly been incorrect more often than not. In my personal view, this will prove to be an ephemeral blip, a painful one nonetheless. The most ardent Bears have as yet been unable to show any tangible evidence that a slowdown is indeed in the offing. This was a market looking for a selloff IMHO. We have gotten one and the upward trend will continue hopefully after Nov. 20. BTW, does anyone here remember the days when AMAT was up on a daily basis? It already seems like an eternity ago. Regards, Brian

To: Steve Byers who wrote (10977)	11/13/1997 10:48:00 PM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

steve... with all due respect... I sold at 100 'cause i saw trouble... not just trouble but the exact SEA trouble that eventually transpired... what i have been saying in post after post after post is that the outlook for the stock is not as clear as it once was, that the SEA currency crises will increase the cost of borrowing in SEA either by increasing interst rates on local currency loans or by devaluing local currency to make $US repayments more expensive... so it probably will cramp SEA cap-ex at some point, maybe even now. But that I also think that the sell off is way over done because the economics of fab are not a pure as once was, and SEA is not the whole world... that said I am very happy to have been able to buy stock with which I made a 400% return (in one year) for 60% of my sale price within six weeks of sale, as I expect the stock to trade at or near to all time highs by the end of this year. I believe that if it was not for the surprisingly predicable and totally warented SEA currency woes, and intc seemingly missing a trick for the first time in yonks, the the stock might have continued to race away into the 130's. So please do not lump me in with the everything is right and dandy brigade, because it is not warented... just double click on my name and read my posts... as for market participants admitting to a slowdown... I'm not sure which market we're talking about... what i will say is that I have read the KLAC, Novellous, KLIC and Mattson (don't ask) reports from pillar to post and they haven't witnessed it yet, and i have yet to see a single post dealing with cancelation, or push out of a semi equip order... what i have seen is real deflation in dram in the face of rapidly increasing demand (which Dave Dihllon and myself argued to a standstill as to how it really affects fab construction)... and box makers suggesting slower 4th quarter demand - maybe... and then we have intc under margin pressure 'cause it had a momentary lapse and misread the demand for sub $1000 PC and handed a sliver to cyrix and amd. On the flip side - cars, trucks, plane, trains, missiles, sex aids, cameras etc..... contain ever more chips than ever, microsoft is quadroupling production of Web TV's (an event that's importance is being terrifically underestimated), dvd rom promises to revolutionise what we can do on PC's especially for media type like myself and will IMHO 'cause a frenzied round of upgrades that might well change the competitive landscape in boxes significantly... every kid wants a nintendo 64 for christmas... My point -- don't even try and convince me this is '95 all over again, 'cause it's not even close ---- sometimes we have to look a little further than the eye can see to what's really going on... and what's really going on is that we live on the cusp of a digital age... a binary age... a silicon age... the cycles will get more stable. that is not to say i am some crazy optimist that thinks amat's never gonna have a bad quarter... its to say, its resilience is improving, and its market dominance is enabling it to manage the flow of orders is better (look how the co. moved large orders out of the third into the fourth quarter, to prevent the third being too strong) and its strategic position justifies a stock price greater than 15 times next years consensus.