Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (146674)	3/8/2011 5:37:24 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206350

>>>I do love to gamble. :)<<< So do I. And long crude seems smart. But what to do?? Methinks more than ever...plan your trade, and trade your plan. (Gag. How trite.) All I can say Big was that during the seven day time span from when the markets closed on 9/11/01 to when they opened on 9/18/01 I was mostly in the confessional trying to pretend to feel guilt but really thinking about how much money I was going to make off of the sure war in the Middle East. You see I was levered out the ying-yang going into that horrid day. In the first 15 minutes of trading when things reopened, I was up 10%. Weeeeeee. By noon I was getting margin calls. I think it not so much what to do but how to do it. Maybe get long using calls and just be willing to lose the premium. You know mad money. I think that stop loss and/or trailing stops will be the order of the day. Maybe just buy volatility - buy some straddles on your favorite E&P. IF you really want to hang it out - and a much safer and subtle play - buy some call options on the VIX. The more I think about that, the more I like it. We can only be reasonably sure that if/when the beheadings start in Saudi that the price of crude will go up. Who knows what sort of pair trades those silly hedge funds have put on such that they might be forced to close their long crude legs (eg being 75% long NFLX, 20% long crude and 5% cash). It the SHTF in Saudi, you can be sure that fear and the VIX will scream upwards. Don't do what I did and sell naked calls against the VIX in the summer of '08 when the VIX had moved to 3X its historical high. I mean...it had to revert...right??? No. Buy a few VIX calls tomorrow with mad money and an appropriate trailing stop.

To: Big Dog who wrote (146674)	3/8/2011 8:45:05 PM
From: Peter van Steennis	Respond to of 206350

Big; You buy HDY of course. (:>

To: Big Dog who wrote (146674)	3/9/2011 7:16:36 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206350

Paddy Power predicts oil to break $200 Continued unrest in the Middle East is threatening to send fuel prices rocketing even further fuelling fears that the cost of a barrel of oil could break the $200 mark. Paddy Power today slashed their odds on a barrel of oil soaring to $200 to just 3/1 as worried punters piled on. Sharon McHugh, spokesperson for Paddy Power said: “Three years ago we saw the same gamble when there were fears oil would break $200. It never did reach $200 in 2008; instead it peaked just below $150. But this time around the odds on such an occurrence are half what they were!” Whether or not the price of oil breaks $200 will most likely depend on how things pan out politically with the world’s largest oil producer Saudi Arabia. 2011 Current Odds Break $200 3/1 Price of oil to trade greater than $200 by end of 2011 Based on Brent Crude Oil 2008 Odds Break $200 6/1 Price of oil to trade greater than $200 by end of 2008 Based on Brent Crude Oil